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Building scenarios: a qualitative approach to forecasting market developments for ornamental plants

Author

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  • Giuseppe Di Vita
  • Valeria Allegra
  • Alfonso Silvio ZarbÃ

Abstract

In order to highlight some of peculiarities of mechanisms and dynamics of the ornamental plant market this paper presents the first use of the Delphi method for a scenario analysis of ornamental plant production. The present study aims to forecast the evolution and expansion of the ornamental plant market and to identify future scenarios for the development of Italian companies involved in the ornamental pot plant industry. The results of the survey highlight a considerable agreement among experts that production and trade in the near future will remain fairly stable. Despite the increased interest of new and emerging markets in ornamental plants, not all producers will benefit from this development. Our findings predict a reduction in the income of Italian ornamental plant producers due to decreased prices, accompanied by a progressive exit from the market of small- and medium-sized enterprises unable to adequately innovate and adopt the optimal supply chain strategies required by current markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Di Vita & Valeria Allegra & Alfonso Silvio ZarbÃ, 2015. "Building scenarios: a qualitative approach to forecasting market developments for ornamental plants," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2), pages 130-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijbglo:v:15:y:2015:i:2:p:130-151
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Di Vita & Daniela Spina & Rachele De Cianni & Roberto Carbone & Mario D’Amico & Raffaele Zanchini, 2023. "Enhancing the extended value chain of the aromatic plant sector in Italy: a multiple correspondence analysis based on stakeholders’ opinions," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Incrocci, Luca & Marzialetti, Paolo & Incrocci, Giorgio & Di Vita, Andrea & Balendonck, Jos & Bibbiani, Carlo & Spagnol, Serafino & Pardossi, Alberto, 2019. "Sensor-based management of container nursery crops irrigated with fresh or saline water," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 49-61.
    3. Coppola, A. & Ianuario, S. & Chinnici, G. & Di Vita, G. & Pappalardo, G. & D'Amico, D., 2018. "Endogenous and Exogenous Determinants of Agricultural Productivity: What Is the Most Relevant for the Competitiveness of the Italian Agricultural Systems?," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 10(2).

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