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The Effects Of Congressional Elections On Future Equity Market Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Louis Ovlia
  • David Enke
  • Michael C. Davis

Abstract

As the primary entity responsible for new legislation, Congress is capable of enacting legislation that may affect future market returns. To examine potential effects, the percentage of the House of Representatives and Senate controlled by a political party is examined. Additionally, the effect on returns in a change in the percentage of seats gained or lost in Congressional elections is analyzed. To test both theories, a modified partisan view model is adopted. Results point to the fact that equity markets perform better in situations in which power is distributed between political parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Louis Ovlia & David Enke & Michael C. Davis, 2008. "The Effects Of Congressional Elections On Future Equity Market Returns," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibf:gjbres:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:1-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grier, Kevin B & McGarrity, Joseph P, 2002. "Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916-1996," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 110(1-2), pages 143-162, January.
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    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

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