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Makroøkonomisk analyse, finanspolitisk holdbarhed og DREAM-modellen: en umage cocktail

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  • Jespersen, Jesper

    (Institut for Samfundsvidenskab, Roskilde Universitetscenter)

Abstract

Velfærdskommissionen (VK) har i sit hidtidige arbejde koncentreret sig om at gennemføre fremskrivninger af udviklingen i nogle få centrale makroøkonomiske variable under antagelse af, at både privat og offentligt forbrug øges med den underliggende trend i produktiviteten. Hovedresultaterne fra denne fremskrivning frem til år 2061 er gengivet i kapitel 12 i VK (2004a). Ved brug af den generelle ligevægtsmodel DREAM er spørgsmålet om finanspolitisk holdbarhed efterfølgende blevet vurderet. Den fremlagte beregning viser, at konklusionerne ikke mindst vedr. finanspolitisk holdbarhed er meget følsom over for antagelser om middellevetid, erhvervsfrekvens og den trendmæssige opskrivning af væksten i offentlige udgifter og indtægter.

Suggested Citation

  • Jespersen, Jesper, 2005. "Makroøkonomisk analyse, finanspolitisk holdbarhed og DREAM-modellen: en umage cocktail," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2005(1), pages 243-249.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:jdaecn:0170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    makroøkonomi; finanspolitik; DREAM-model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

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