A Daily Runoff Prediction Model for the Yangtze River Basin Based on an Improved Generative Adversarial Network

Hydrological runoff prediction plays a crucial role in water resource management and sustainable development. However, it is often constrained by the nonlinearity, strong stochasticity, and high non-stationarity of hydrological data, as well as the limited accuracy of traditional forecasting methods. Although Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) have been widely used for data augmentation to enhance predictive model training, their direct application as forecasting models remains limited. Additionally, the architectures of the generator and discriminator in WGAN-GP have not been fully optimized, and their potential in hydrological forecasting has not been thoroughly explored. Meanwhile, the strategy of jointly optimizing Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) with WGAN-GP is still in its infancy in this field. To address these challenges and promote more accurate and sustainable water resource planning, this study proposes a comprehensive forecasting model, VXWGAN-GP, which integrates Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), WGAN-GP, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (BiLSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and Attention mechanisms. The VAE enhances feature representation by learning the data distribution and generating new features, which are then combined with the original features to improve predictive performance. The generator integrates GRU, BiLSTM, and Attention mechanisms: GRU captures short-term dependencies, BiLSTM captures long-term dependencies, and Attention focuses on critical time steps to generate forecasting results. The discriminator, based on CNN, evaluates the differences between the generated and real data through adversarial training, thereby optimizing the generator’s forecasting ability and achieving high-precision runoff prediction. This study conducts daily runoff prediction experiments at the Yichang, Cuntan, and Pingshan hydrological stations in the Yangtze River Basin. The results demonstrate that VXWGAN-GP significantly improves the quality of input features and enhances runoff prediction accuracy, offering a reliable tool for sustainable hydrological forecasting and water resource management. By providing more precise and robust runoff predictions, this model contributes to long-term water sustainability and resilience in hydrological systems.