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Research on Coalbed Methane Production Forecasting Based on GCN-BiGRU Parallel Architecture—Taking Fukang Baiyanghe Mining Area in Xinjiang as an Example

Author

Listed:
  • Zhixin Jin

    (Center of Shanxi Engineering Research for Coal Mine Intelligent Equipment, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China)

  • Kaiman Liu

    (Center of Shanxi Engineering Research for Coal Mine Intelligent Equipment, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
    College of Safety and Emergency Management Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China)

  • Hongli Wang

    (Center of Shanxi Engineering Research for Coal Mine Intelligent Equipment, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China)

  • Tong Liu

    (Center of Shanxi Engineering Research for Coal Mine Intelligent Equipment, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
    College of Safety and Emergency Management Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
    Xinjiang Intelligent Equipment Research Institute, Aksu 843000, China)

  • Hongwei Wang

    (Center of Shanxi Engineering Research for Coal Mine Intelligent Equipment, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
    Xinjiang Intelligent Equipment Research Institute, Aksu 843000, China
    State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Mining Equipment Technology, Taiyuan 030032, China
    College of Mining Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China)

  • Xin Wang

    (Center of Shanxi Engineering Research for Coal Mine Intelligent Equipment, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
    College of Safety and Emergency Management Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China)

  • Xuesong Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Mining Equipment Technology, Taiyuan 030032, China)

  • Lijie Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Mining Equipment Technology, Taiyuan 030032, China)

  • Qun Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Mining Equipment Technology, Taiyuan 030032, China)

  • Hongxing Huang

    (China United Coalbed Methane National Engineering Research Center Co., Ltd., Beijing 100095, China
    National Engineering Research Center for Coalbed Methane Development and Utilization, Beijing 100190, China)

Abstract

As a low-carbon and clean energy source, Coalbed methane (CBM) is of great significance in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, optimizing the energy structure, safeguarding mine safety, and promoting the transformation to a green economy to achieve sustainable development. Coalbed methane (CBM) in Xinjiang’s steeply dipping coal seams is abundant but difficult to predict due to complex geology and distinct gas flow behaviors, making traditional methods ineffective. This study proposes GCN-BiGRU, a parallel dual-module model integrating seepage mechanics, reservoir engineering, geological structures, and production history. The GCN module models wells as nodes, using geological attributes and spatial distances to capture inter-well interference; the BiGRU module extracts temporal dependencies from production sequences. An adaptive fusion mechanism dynamically combines spatiotemporal features for robust prediction. Validated on Baiyanghe block data, the model achieved MAE 59.04, RMSE 94.25, and improved accuracy from 64.47% to 92.8% as training wells increased from 20 to 84. It also showed strong transferability to independent sub-regions, enabling real-time prediction and scenario analysis for CBM development and reservoir management.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhixin Jin & Kaiman Liu & Hongli Wang & Tong Liu & Hongwei Wang & Xin Wang & Xuesong Wang & Lijie Wang & Qun Zhang & Hongxing Huang, 2025. "Research on Coalbed Methane Production Forecasting Based on GCN-BiGRU Parallel Architecture—Taking Fukang Baiyanghe Mining Area in Xinjiang as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:18:p:8380-:d:1752625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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