Threats and Opportunities for Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Use in the Buffer Zones of National Parks in the Brazilian Cerrado

In recent decades, the Brazilian Cerrado has faced rapid land conversion, resulting in the loss of approximately half of its original vegetation cover. Most existing conservation units within the biome are increasingly threatened by the expansion of land use around their boundaries. The establishment of buffer zones with land use regulations may protect biodiversity within these protected areas. In this study, we evaluated and ranked the 10 km buffer zones of 15 national parks (NPs) located in the Cerrado biome, identifying their priority for biodiversity conservation and sustainable land use interventions. The analysis considered the following data: land use and land cover change from 2012 to 2020, extent of natural vegetation fragments, presence or absence of state and municipal conservation units within the buffer zones, and drainage density. Two multicriteria analysis methods, the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted linear combination, were applied to classify the buffer zones into five levels of threat: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. Among the 15 buffer zones analyzed, 11 were classified as having high to very high priority for conservation actions. The buffer zones surrounding the Serra da Bodoquena, Emas, Canastra, and Brasília NPs were ranked as having very high priority. Between 2012 and 2020, the most severe reductions in ecological connectivity were observed in the buffer zones of Grande Sertão Veredas (44.5%), Nascentes do Rio Parnaíba (40.4%), and Serra das Confusões (36.7%). Given the relatively high proportion of natural vegetation in the buffer zones located in the northern Cerrado, we recommend prioritizing conservation efforts in this region. In contrast, in the southern portion of the biome, where land occupation is more intense, strategies should focus on promoting environmentally sustainable land use practices.