Can the Development of Green Fertilizers by Science and Technology Backyards Promote Green Production by Farmers? An Evolutionary Game Analysis of a Tripartite Interaction

The research and application of green fertilizers have long been constrained by financial and technical barriers. Farmers’ adoption of green fertilizers is also highly dependent on government policy support. As an intermediary organization bridging the government and farmers, the STB plays a crucial role in encouraging the use of green fertilizers. In order to explore the impact of the STB’s research and development investment, as well as government intervention on farmers’ green production behavior, this paper constructs a tripartite dynamic game model involving farmers, the STB, and the government. The study systematically analyzes the decision-making mechanisms of the different stakeholders and their evolutionary paths. The results show the following: (1) Under certain conditions, the system converges to two stable states: government withdrawal (1,1,0) and continued government participation (1,1,1). (2) Government intervention shows a phased decrease. As the green fertilizer production system matures, farmers and the STB gradually form a stable collaborative mechanism. At this stage, the government shifts from direct participation to a supervisory role, with its implementation coefficient increasing to between 0.75 and 1, indicating that government supervision becomes the primary mode of action. (3) The research and development efforts of the STB are influenced by both the intensity of government support and technological breakthroughs. During periods of high-intensity government support (with a research and development investment coefficient between 0.05 and 0.15), and when technological accumulation achieves a critical breakthrough, the growth rate of investment increases significantly (the coefficient jumps to 0.15–0.3). (4) Farmers’ demand for green fertilizers is stable and consistent, and the market-oriented collaboration between the STB and farmers tends to favor green production technology, which verifies the feasibility of the government’s withdrawal of functions in the later stage of the green agricultural transformation. This study provides a scientific basis for decision-making regarding the STB’s research and development of green fertilizers, while also laying a theoretical foundation for promoting the green transformation of farmers through green fertilizer innovation.