Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use/Cover Change and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Reserve Response in Liaoning Province, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) can either enhance the areal carbon reserve capacity or exacerbate carbon emission issues, thereby significantly influencing global climate change. Comprehending the impact of LUCC on regional carbon reserve variation holds great significance for regional ecosystem preservation and socioeconomic sustainable development. This study focuses on Liaoning Province, leveraging land use remote sensing data from three periods from 2000 to 2020, natural environmental data and socioeconomic data in conjunction with the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. It analyzes the interactive relationship between LUCC and carbon reserves in Liaoning Province between 2000 and 2020 and forecasts the trajectory of carbon reserve changes in Liaoning Province under various scenarios: business as usual, urban development, cropland protection, and ecological protection, all based on LUCC simulations. The findings indicate the following: (1) Over the study period, Liaoning Province experienced significant LUCC characterized primarily by the transformation of farmland to built-up land. Carbon reserves initially declined and later increased due to LUCC changes, resulting in a cumulative increase of 30.52 Tg C. The spatial distribution of carbon reserves was influenced by LUCC, displaying a pattern of spatial aggregation, with higher values in the east and lower values in the west. (2) Across the four simulation scenarios, the spatial pattern of carbon reserves in Liaoning Province continued to exhibit the characteristic spatial aggregation of higher values in the east and lower values in the west. Under the urban development scenario, carbon reserves decreased by 34.56 Tg C tons, representing a 2.45% decrease compared to 2020. Conversely, under the business-as-usual, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios, carbon reserves displayed a growing tendency, reaching 1449.35 Tg C, 1450.39 Tg C, and 1471.80 Tg C, respectively, with changes of 0.09%, 0.16% and 1.63% compared to 2020. The substantial increase in carbon reserves under the ecological protection scenario primarily stemmed from the significant expansion of woodland and other ecological land areas. In light of these findings, Liaoning Province may consider laying down and strictly executing spatial policies for ecological protection in future land projecting. The PLUS model and InVEST model can help curb the uncontrolled expansion of built-up land, facilitate the increment of ecological land areas, and with effect augment carbon reserves, thereby ensuring the achievement of the “double carbon” target of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.