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Evaluation of General Circulation Models CMIP6 Performance and Future Climate Change over the Omo River Basin, Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Tolera Abdissa Feyissa

    (Geotechnics and Coastal Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Rostock University, 18059 Rostock, Germany
    Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Jimma University, Jimma 378, Ethiopia)

  • Tamene Adugna Demissie

    (Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Jimma University, Jimma 378, Ethiopia)

  • Fokke Saathoff

    (Geotechnics and Coastal Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Rostock University, 18059 Rostock, Germany)

  • Alemayehu Gebissa

    (Geotechnics and Coastal Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Rostock University, 18059 Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

One of the world’s major issues is climate change, which has a significant impact on ecosystems, human beings, agricultural productivity, water resources, and environmental management. The General Circulation Models (GCMs), specially the recently released (coupled model intercomparison project six) CMIP6 are very indispensable to understand and support decision makers to identify adaptation strategies in response to future climate change in a basin. However, proper selection of skillful GCMs and future climate assessment is a prior task to climate impact studies. The objective of the study is an attempt to appraise the climate model’s performance and future climate scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Omo River Basin. The performance evaluation of 20 GCMs of the CMIP6 was properly performed to reproduce the precipitation and the maximum temperature in the basin. Their performance has been carried out against the best selected mean monthly Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation and European Community Medium Water Range Weather Forecasts Version 5 (ECMWF-ERA5) maximum temperature. The GCMs of the CMIP6 were selected and ranked using the compromise programming method of multi-criteria decision making. The result shows that ensemble models and NorESM2-MM models have been designated to reproduce the precipitation and maximum temperature in the basin respectively. The Mann–Kendall trend test was executed to appraise the trend of selected CMIP6 models, and subsequently, downscaling and bias correction techniques were conducted. The projected seasonal precipitation of June, July, August, September (JJAS) and March, April, May (MAM) shows an increasing trend with 10.86, 17.66, 38.96 and 11.85, 22.1, and 40.7% under SSP2452031-2060, SSP5852031-2060, and SSP5852071-2100 scenarios respectively. Furthermore, increasing trends were detected in MAM by 12.8% and decreasing trends in JJAS were detected by 15.23% under SSP2452071-2100 scenario. The maximum temperature projection will be increased on average by 0.95, 1.78, 1.4, and 3.88 °C in JJAS and 1.53, 2.24, 1.56, and 3.89 °C in MAM under climate change scenarios of near-future SSP2452031-2060, SSP5852031-2060, far-future SSP2452071-2100, and SSP5852071-2100, respectively. Additionally, the basin has shown temporal-spatial climate fluctuation in terms of precipitation and maximum temperature.

Suggested Citation

  • Tolera Abdissa Feyissa & Tamene Adugna Demissie & Fokke Saathoff & Alemayehu Gebissa, 2023. "Evaluation of General Circulation Models CMIP6 Performance and Future Climate Change over the Omo River Basin, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-37, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:8:p:6507-:d:1121181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Ayugi & Zablon Weku Shilenje & Hassen Babaousmail & Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian & Richard Mumo & Victor Nnamdi Dike & Vedaste Iyakaremye & Abdelghani Chehbouni & Victor Ongoma, 2022. "Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1151-1176, September.
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    1. Fekadie Bazie Enyew & Dejene Sahlu & Gashaw Bimrew Tarekegn & Addis A. Alaminie, 2026. "Analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of climate extremes under the CMIP6 climate model in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 122(6), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Aida Hosseini Baghanam & Vahid Nourani & Ehsan Norouzi & Amirreza Tabataba Vakili & Hüseyin Gökçekuş, 2023. "Application of Wavelet Transform for Bias Correction and Predictor Screening of Climate Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, October.

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