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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Annual Maximum Flood in an Urban River in Dublin, Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Arunima Sarkar Basu

    (School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8 Dublin, Ireland)

  • Laurence William Gill

    (Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Trinity College Dublin, D02 PN40 Dublin, Ireland)

  • Francesco Pilla

    (School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8 Dublin, Ireland)

  • Bidroha Basu

    (Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Munster Technological University, T12 P928 Cork, Ireland)

Abstract

Hydrological modelling to address the problem of flood risk corresponding to climate change can play an important role in water resources management. This paper describes the potential impact of climate change on an urban river catchment using a physically based hydrological model called Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The study area considered is the Dodder River basin located in the southern part of Dublin, the capital city of Ireland. Climate projections from three regional climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RPC 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the impact of flooding corresponding to different climate change scenarios. Annual maximum flow (AMF) is generated by combining the bias-corrected climate projections with the calibrated and validated SWAT model to understand the projected changes in flood patterns for the year 2021–2100. The expected changes in flood quantiles were estimated using a generalised extreme value distribution. The results predicted up to 12% and 16% increase in flood quantiles corresponding to 50 years and 100 years return periods. Based on the flood quantiles, flood inundation maps were developed for the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Arunima Sarkar Basu & Laurence William Gill & Francesco Pilla & Bidroha Basu, 2022. "Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Annual Maximum Flood in an Urban River in Dublin, Ireland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:8:p:4670-:d:793298
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arunima Sarkar Basu & Laurence William Gill & Francesco Pilla & Bidroha Basu, 2022. "Assessment of Variations in Runoff Due to Landcover Changes Using the SWAT Model in an Urban River in Dublin, Ireland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Pierfranco Costabile & Francesco Macchione & Luigi Natale & Gabriella Petaccia, 2015. "Flood mapping using LIDAR DEM. Limitations of the 1-D modeling highlighted by the 2-D approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 181-204, May.
    3. Paul Leahy & Gerard Kiely, 2011. "Short Duration Rainfall Extremes in Ireland: Influence of Climatic Variability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(3), pages 987-1003, February.
    4. Pradeep Adhikari & Yang Hong & Kimberly Douglas & Dalia Kirschbaum & Jonathan Gourley & Robert Adler & G. Robert Brakenridge, 2010. "A digitized global flood inventory (1998–2008): compilation and preliminary results," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(2), pages 405-422, November.
    5. Huan-Feng Duan & Xichao Gao, 2019. "Flooding Control and Hydro-Energy Assessment for Urban Stormwater Drainage Systems under Climate Change: Framework Development and Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3523-3545, August.
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