In the COVID-19 Era, When and Where Will You Travel Abroad? Prediction through Application of PPM Model

This study aimed to derive tourism motives and constraint factors that have changed or are newly applicable after COVID-19, and to identify the influencing relationships between these factors and complex aspects of tourism behavior intentions. For this purpose, the Push-Pull-Mooring model was used. To achieve the purpose of this study, prior literature and empirical studies were used to derive the primary measurement items through the primarily derived PPM model-based factors, and an online questionnaire survey was conducted with consumers who had had experience of overseas travel within the past two years. In total, 322 copies of the questionnaire were used for analysis. Through factor analyses, five push factors, four pull factors, and four mooring factors were derived. To understand tourism behavior intentions, each of the travel resumption times, preferred destination types, and preferred accommodation types were divided into three to conduct multinomial logistic regression analysis. The influence relationships between variables were verified to identify the changes in tourism behavior intentions caused by COVID-19, and the results indicated that some items of the PPM factors had significant influencing relationships with travel resumption times and preferred accommodation types. The preferred destination types were found to have significant influencing relationships with some items of the push/pull factors that were not found to have any influencing relationships with the mooring factors. This study is meaningful in that it presented motives and constraint factors for tourism behaviors from a new perspective based on changes in the tourism environment due to COVID-19, and the application of the PPM model and travel behavior is expected to be applied to diverse tourist behavior studies hereafter to achieve theoretical extensions.