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A New Index to Assess Vulnerability to Regional Shrinkage (Hollowing out) Due to the Changing Age Structure and Population Density

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  • Jimin Lee

    (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea)

  • Kyo Suh

    (Graduate School of International Agricultural Technology, Seoul National University, Pyeongchang 25354, Korea
    Institute of Green Bio Science & Technology, Seoul National University, Pyeongchang 25354, Korea)

Abstract

In South Korea, there is an awareness of the risks of regional shrinkage and depopulation due to demographic changes and unbalanced population distribution. With concerns about the extinction of local cities and the hollowing out of rural communities, scholars have increasingly called for new population indices or indicators to evaluate the current state of the local population. The purpose of this study was to develop a vulnerability index to effectively analyze the age structure and population changes associated with regional shrinkage (i.e., hollowing out). This study applied ranking and correlation analysis results using data for population density and the population structure by age to develop a new index to assess a region’s vulnerability to the regional shrinkage effect. The new vulnerability index identified vulnerable regions by evaluating regional vulnerability using 2019 data. We also conducted a correlation analysis to validate the new index and found that the proposed index was significantly correlated with population growth and all other demographic indicators. The index developed in this study can be used to assess and compare the vulnerability of areas to regional shrinkage following population changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimin Lee & Kyo Suh, 2021. "A New Index to Assess Vulnerability to Regional Shrinkage (Hollowing out) Due to the Changing Age Structure and Population Density," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:16:p:9382-:d:618677
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Annegret Haase & Dieter Rink & Katrin Grossmann & Matthias Bernt & Vlad Mykhnenko, 2014. "Conceptualizing Urban Shrinkage," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(7), pages 1519-1534, July.
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    1. Xueru Zhang & Jie Wang & Wei Song & Fengfei Wang & Xing Gao & Lei Liu & Kun Dong & Dazhi Yang, 2022. "Decoupling Analysis between Rural Population Change and Rural Construction Land Changes in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Bin Guo & Yi Bian & Lin Pei & Xiaowei Zhu & Dingming Zhang & Wencai Zhang & Xianan Guo & Qiuji Chen, 2022. "Identifying Population Hollowing Out Regions and Their Dynamic Characteristics across Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.

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