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Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Using Climate Elasticity Method and General Circulation Model (GCM) in the Buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan

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  • Moldir Rakhimova

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Tie Liu

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Sanim Bissenbayeva

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Yerbolat Mukanov

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China
    Regional State Enterprise Kazhydromet, Nur-Sultan 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Khusen Sh. Gafforov

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Zhuldyzay Bekpergenova

    (Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Bioremediation, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 83011, China)

  • Aminjon Gulakhmadov

    (Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe 734064, Tajikistan)

Abstract

The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) was assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change were as follows—70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 °C/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from 0.50 to 0.61 °C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%) during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period. The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water resources and for ecological environment protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Moldir Rakhimova & Tie Liu & Sanim Bissenbayeva & Yerbolat Mukanov & Khusen Sh. Gafforov & Zhuldyzay Bekpergenova & Aminjon Gulakhmadov, 2020. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Using Climate Elasticity Method and General Circulation Model (GCM) in the Buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:12:p:4968-:d:373121
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feng Huang & Ziqiang Xia & Fan Li & Lidan Guo & Fucheng Yang, 2012. "Hydrological Changes of the Irtysh River and the Possible Causes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3195-3208, September.
    2. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
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    2. Yufei Jiao & Jia Liu & Chuanzhe Li & Wei Wang & Fuliang Yu & Yizhi Wang, 2020. "Quantitative Attribution of Runoff Attenuation to Climate Change and Human Activity in Typical Mountainous Areas: An Enlightenment to Water Resource Sustainable Utilization and Management in North Chi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Qinghe Zhao & Shengyan Ding & Xiaoyu Ji & Zhendong Hong & Mengwen Lu & Peng Wang, 2021. "Relative Contribution of the Xiaolangdi Dam to Runoff Changes in the Lower Yellow River," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Altanshagai Batmunkh & Agus Dwi Nugroho & Maria Fekete-Farkas & Zoltan Lakner, 2022. "Global Challenges and Responses: Agriculture, Economic Globalization, and Environmental Sustainability in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, February.

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