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Prediction of the Energy Demand Trend in Middle Africa—A Comparison of MGM, MECM, ARIMA and BP Models

Author

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  • Lili Wang

    (School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China)

  • Lina Zhan

    (School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China)

  • Rongrong Li

    (School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China)

Abstract

Africa has abundant energy resources, but African energy research level is relatively low. In response to this gap, this paper takes Middle Africa as an example to systematically predict energy demand to give support. In this paper, we utilize four models, metabolic grey model (MGM), modified exponential curve method (MECM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and BP neural network model (BP), to predict the energy consumption of Middle Africa in the next 14 years. Comparing four completely different types of predictive models can fully depict the characteristics of the predictive data and give an all-round analysis of the predicted results. These proposed models are applied to simulate Middle Africa’s energy consumption between 1994 and 2016 to test their accuracy. Among them, the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of MGM, MECM, ARIMA and BP are 2.41%, 4.80%, 1.91%, and 0.88%. The results show that MGM, MECM, ARIMA, and BP presented in this paper can produce reliable forecasting results. Therefore, the four models are used to forecast energy demand in the next 14 years (2017–2030). Forecasts show that energy demand of Middle Africa will continue to grow at a rate of about 5.37%.

Suggested Citation

  • Lili Wang & Lina Zhan & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Prediction of the Energy Demand Trend in Middle Africa—A Comparison of MGM, MECM, ARIMA and BP Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:8:p:2436-:d:225611
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    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting demand for electricity in Zimbabwe using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique," MPRA Paper 96903, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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