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Early Warning to Insolvency in the Pension Fund: The French Case


  • Noël Bonneuil

    () (Institut mational d'études démographiques, 133, bld Davout, 75980, Paris cedex 20, France
    Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales, 190 Avenue de France, F—75013 Paris, France)


The financial equilibrium of pension funds relies on the appropriate computation of retirement benefits, taking account of future payments and discount rates. Short-term errors in the commitment for retirement benefits, ill-suited investment in the stock market, or improper mixture with pay-as-you-go payments have long-term consequences and may lead the pension fund to insolvency. The differential equation governing the current assets shows the respective weights associated with the error on the interest rate, the error on the extra bonus, and the error made in forecasting mortality. These weights are estimated through simulations. A short follow-up is sufficient to estimate the three errors. A threshold for the extra interest rate to be earned on the financial market is given to counter-balance the extra bonus when mortality is forecast correctly.

Suggested Citation

  • Noël Bonneuil, 2013. "Early Warning to Insolvency in the Pension Fund: The French Case," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:1:y:2013:i:1:p:1-13:d:22969

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gollier, Christian, 2008. "Intergenerational risk-sharing and risk-taking of a pension fund," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1463-1485, June.
    2. Møller,Thomas & Steffensen,Mogens, 2007. "Market-Valuation Methods in Life and Pension Insurance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521868778, March.
    3. Ponds, Eduard H. M., 2003. "Pension funds and value-based generational accounting," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 295-325, November.
    4. Blake, David, 1998. "Pension schemes as options on pension fund assets: implications for pension fund management," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 263-286, December.
    5. Bowers, Newton Jr. & Hickman, James C. & Nesbitt, Cecil J., 1982. "Notes on the dynamics of pension funding," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 261-270, October.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, June.
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    More about this item


    pension funding; retirement benefits; control differential equation; misestimation of mortality;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics
    • M4 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting
    • K2 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law


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