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DSC-CBAM-BiLSTM: A Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

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  • Aiwen Shen

    (Faculty of Humanities and Arts, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao 999078, China)

  • Yunqi Lin

    (Faculty of Humanities and Arts, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao 999078, China)

  • Yiran Peng

    (Faculty of Innovation Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau 999078, China)

  • KinTak U

    (Faculty of Innovation Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau 999078, China)

  • Siyuan Zhao

    (Faculty of Humanities and Arts, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao 999078, China)

Abstract

To address the challenges of photovoltaic (PV) power prediction in highly dynamic environments. We propose an improved Long Short-Term Memory (ILSTM) model. The model uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for feature selection, ensuring key information is preserved while reducing dimensionality. The Depthwise Separable Convolution (DSC) module extracts spatial features, while the Channel-Spatial Attention Mechanism (CBAM) focuses on important time-dependent patterns. Finally, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) captures nonlinear dynamics and long-term dependencies, boosting prediction performance. The model is called DSC-CBAM-BiLSTM. It selects important features adaptively. It captures key spatial-temporal patterns and improves forecasting performance based on RMSE, MAE, and R 2 . Extensive experiments using real-world PV datasets under varied meteorological scenarios show the proposed model significantly outperforms traditional approaches. Specifically, RMSE and MAE are reduced by over 70%, and the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) is improved by 8.5%. These results confirm the framework’s effectiveness for real-time, short-term PV forecasting and its applicability in energy dispatching and smart grid operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiwen Shen & Yunqi Lin & Yiran Peng & KinTak U & Siyuan Zhao, 2025. "DSC-CBAM-BiLSTM: A Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-15, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:13:y:2025:i:16:p:2581-:d:1722975
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Jiaqian & Rao, Congjun & Gao, Mingyun & Xiao, Xinping & Goh, Mark, 2025. "Efficient calculation of distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction via deep learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Gao, Xifeng & Zang, Yuesong & Ma, Qian & Liu, Mengmeng & Cui, Yiming & Dang, Dazhi, 2025. "A physics-constrained deep learning framework enhanced with signal decomposition for accurate short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    3. Fu, Jiaqian & Sun, Yuying & Li, Yunhe & Wang, Wei & Wei, Wenzhe & Ren, Jinyang & Han, Shulun & Di, Haoran, 2025. "An investigation of photovoltaic power forecasting in buildings considering shadow effects: Modeling approach and SHAP analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    4. Pereira, Sara & Canhoto, Paulo & Oozeki, Takashi & Salgado, Rui, 2025. "Comprehensive approach to photovoltaic power forecasting using numerical weather prediction data and physics-based models and data-driven techniques," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    5. Min, Hyunsik & Noh, Byeongjoon, 2025. "SolarNexus: A deep learning framework for adaptive photovoltaic power generation forecasting and scalable management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 391(C).
    6. Rathore, Abhijeet & Gupta, Priya & Sharma, Raksha & Singh, Rhythm, 2025. "Day ahead solar forecast using long short term memory network augmented with Fast Fourier transform-assisted decomposition technique," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
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