IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i11p1725-d1406920.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Kelly Criterion Extension: Advanced Gambling Strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Song-Kyoo (Amang) Kim

    (Faculty of Applied Sciences, Macao Polytechnic University, R. de Luis Gonzaga Gomes, Macao, China)

Abstract

This article introduces an innovative extension of the Kelly criterion, which has traditionally been used in gambling, sports wagering, and investment contexts. The Kelly criterion extension (KCE) refines the traditional capital growth function to better suit dynamic market conditions. The KCE improves the traditional approach to accommodate the complexities of financial markets, particularly in stock and commodity trading. This innovative method focuses on crafting strategies based on market conditions and player actions rather than direct asset investments, which enhances its practical application by minimizing risks associated with volatile investments. This paper is structured to first outline the foundational concepts of the Kelly criterion, followed by a detailed presentation of the KCE and its advantages in practical scenarios, including a case study on its application to blackjack strategy optimization. The mathematical framework and real-world applicability of the KCE are thoroughly discussed, demonstrating its potential to bridge the gap between theoretical finance and actual trading outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Song-Kyoo (Amang) Kim, 2024. "Kelly Criterion Extension: Advanced Gambling Strategy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-9, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:11:p:1725-:d:1406920
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/11/1725/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/11/1725/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    2. Chung-Han Hsieh & B. Ross Barmish, 2017. "On Kelly Betting: Some Limitations," Papers 1710.01787, arXiv.org.
    3. Sid Browne, 2000. "Risk-Constrained Dynamic Active Portfolio Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(9), pages 1188-1199, September.
    4. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    5. MOSSIN, Jan, 1968. "Optimal multiperiod portfolio policies," LIDAM Reprints CORE 19, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mu-En Wu & Wei-Ho Chung, 2019. "Empirical Evaluations on Momentum Effects of Taiwan Index Futures via Stop-Loss and Stop-Profit Mechanisms," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 629-648, March.
    2. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski & Paweł Sakowski, 2012. "Investment strategies beating the market. What can we squeeze from the market?," Working Papers 2012-04, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    4. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, December.
    5. Ślepaczuk Robert & Sakowski Paweł & Zakrzewski Grzegorz, 2018. "Investment Strategies that Beat the Market. What Can We Squeeze from the Market?," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 36-55, December.
    6. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    7. Colin Atkinson & Emmeline Storey, 2010. "Building an Optimal Portfolio in Discrete Time in the Presence of Transaction Costs," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 323-357.
    8. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Michail S. Koubouros, 2011. "The Role of Realised Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(1-2), pages 87-124, March - J.
    9. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    10. Chongsoo An & John J. Cheh & Il-woon Kim, 2017. "Do Value Stocks Outperform Growth Stocks in the U.S. Stock Market?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 1-7.
    11. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    12. Michael E. Drew & Jon D. Stanford, 2003. "Retail Superannuation Management in Australia: Risk, Cost and Alpha," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 126, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    13. Lijun Bo & Huafu Liao & Xiang Yu, 2020. "Optimal Tracking Portfolio with A Ratcheting Capital Benchmark," Papers 2006.13661, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    14. Zhang, Xili & Zhang, Weiguo & Xiao, Weilin, 2013. "Multi-period portfolio optimization under possibility measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 401-408.
    15. Waleed Khalid & Kashif Ur Rehman & Muhammad Kashif, 2019. "The Impact of Merger and Acquisition Firms on Stock Market Bubble," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(1), pages 335-342, March.
    16. Chendi Ni & Yuying Li & Peter A. Forsyth, 2023. "Neural Network Approach to Portfolio Optimization with Leverage Constraints:a Case Study on High Inflation Investment," Papers 2304.05297, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    17. Luo, Bing, 2019. "Effects of auditor-provided tax services on book-tax differences and on investors' mispricing of book-tax differences," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    18. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan, 2009. "Multi-horizon Markowitz portfolio performance appraisals: A general approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 50-62, February.
    19. Ghada A. Altarawneh & Ahmad B. Hassanat & Ahmad S. Tarawneh & Ahmad Abadleh & Malek Alrashidi & Mansoor Alghamdi, 2022. "Stock Price Forecasting for Jordan Insurance Companies Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Utilizing Off-the-Shelf Technical Analysis Methods," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    20. Paulo Alves, 2013. "The Fama French Model or the Capital Asset Pricing Model: International Evidence," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(2), pages 79-89.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2514 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ladislav Kristoufek & Paulo Ferreira, 2018. "Capital asset pricing model in Portugal: Evidence from fractal regressions," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(3), pages 173-183, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:11:p:1725-:d:1406920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.