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Bayesian Inference for COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in India Using a Modified SEIR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Yin

    (Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA)

  • Anirban Mondal

    (Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA)

  • Martial Ndeffo-Mbah

    (Department of Veterinary and Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77840, USA)

  • Paromita Banerjee

    (Department of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Data Science, John Carroll University, University Heights, OH 44118, USA)

  • Qimin Huang

    (Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA)

  • David Gurarie

    (Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA)

Abstract

We propose a modified population-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model for a retrospective study of the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in India during the first wave. We extend the conventional SEIR methodology to account for the complexities of COVID-19 infection, its multiple symptoms, and transmission pathways. In particular, we consider a time-dependent transmission rate to account for governmental controls (e.g., national lockdown) and individual behavioral factors (e.g., social distancing, mask-wearing, personal hygiene, and self-quarantine). An essential feature of COVID-19 that is different from other infections is the significant contribution of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases to the transmission cycle. A Bayesian method is used to calibrate the proposed SEIR model using publicly available data (daily new tested positive, death, and recovery cases) from several Indian states. The uncertainty of the parameters is naturally expressed as the posterior probability distribution. The calibrated model is used to estimate undetected cases and study different initial intervention policies, screening rates, and public behavior factors, that can potentially strike a balance between disease control and the humanitarian crisis caused by a sudden strict lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Yin & Anirban Mondal & Martial Ndeffo-Mbah & Paromita Banerjee & Qimin Huang & David Gurarie, 2022. "Bayesian Inference for COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in India Using a Modified SEIR Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:21:p:4037-:d:958492
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pramod Soni, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 lockdown phases in India: an atmospheric perspective," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12044-12055, August.
    2. Pai, Chintamani & Bhaskar, Ankush & Rawoot, Vaibhav, 2020. "Investigating the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in India under lockdown," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Sarkar, Kankan & Khajanchi, Subhas & Nieto, Juan J., 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Aparna Joshi, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic in India: through psycho-social lens," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(2), pages 414-437, September.
    5. Soetaert, Karline & Petzoldt, Thomas & Setzer, R. Woodrow, 2010. "Solving Differential Equations in R: Package deSolve," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i09).
    6. Weihsueh A. Chiu & Rebecca Fischer & Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah, 2020. "State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 1080-1090, October.
    7. Alberto Godio & Francesca Pace & Andrea Vergnano, 2020. "SEIR Modeling of the Italian Epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 Using Computational Swarm Intelligence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-19, May.
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