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Modeling Urban Encroachment on the Agricultural Land of the Eastern Nile Delta Using Remote Sensing and a GIS-Based Markov Chain Model

Author

Listed:
  • Kelsee Bratley

    (Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA)

  • Eman Ghoneim

    (Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of North Carolina Wilmington, 601 South College Road, Wilmington, NC 28403-5944, USA)

Abstract

Historically, the Nile Delta has played an integral part in Egyptian civilization, as its fertile soils have been cultivated for centuries. The region offers a lush oasis among the expansive arid climate of Northern Africa; however, in recent decades, many anthropogenic changes to the environment have jeopardized Egypt’s agricultural productivity. Political instability and lack of sufficient regulations regarding urban growth and encroachment have put agricultural land in the area at risk. Advanced geospatial techniques were used to assess the rate at which urban areas are increasing within the region. A hybrid classification of Landsat satellite imagery for the eastern sector of the Nile Delta, between the years 1988 and 2017, was conducted to map major land-use and land-cover (LULC) classes. The statistical change analysis revealed that urban areas increased by 222.5% over the study period (29 years). Results indicated that urban areas are encroaching mainly on established agricultural lands within the Nile Delta. Most of the change has occurred within the past nine years, where approximately 235.60 km 2 of the cultivated lands were transitioned to urban. Nonetheless, at the eastern delta flank, which is bordered by desert, analysis indicated that agricultural lands have experienced a considerable growth throughout the study period due to a major desert reclamation effort. Areas most at risk from future urban expansion were identified. A simulation of future urban expansion, using a Markov Chain algorithm, indicated that the extent to which urban area is simulated to grow in the region is 16.67% (277.3 km 2 ) and 37.82% (843 km 2 ) by the year 2026, and 2050, respectively. The methods used in this study are useful in assessing the rate of urban encroachment on agricultural lands and can be applied to similar at-risk areas in the regions if appropriate site-specific modifications are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelsee Bratley & Eman Ghoneim, 2018. "Modeling Urban Encroachment on the Agricultural Land of the Eastern Nile Delta Using Remote Sensing and a GIS-Based Markov Chain Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:7:y:2018:i:4:p:114-:d:173279
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Parker, John B. & Coyle, James R., 1981. "Urbanization and Agricultural Policy in Egypt," Foreign Agricultural Economic Report (FAER) 147184, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Kotaro Iizuka & Brian A. Johnson & Akio Onishi & Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog & Isao Endo & Milben Bragais, 2017. "Modeling Future Urban Sprawl and Landscape Change in the Laguna de Bay Area, Philippines," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elsayed Said Mohamed & Mohamed Abu-hashim & Mohamed A. E. AbdelRahman & Brigitta Schütt & Rosa Lasaponara, 2019. "Evaluating the Effects of Human Activity over the Last Decades on the Soil Organic Carbon Pool Using Satellite Imagery and GIS Techniques in the Nile Delta Area, Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Taher M. Radwan, 2019. "Monitoring Agricultural Expansion in a Newly Reclaimed Area in the Western Nile Delta of Egypt Using Landsat Imageries," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Liye Wang & Xinli Ke & Assem Abu Hatab, 2020. "Trade-Offs between Economic Benefits and Ecosystem Services Value under Three Cropland Protection Scenarios for Wuhan City in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Qingyao Huang & Yihua Liu, 2021. "The Coupling between Urban Expansion and Population Growth: An Analysis of Urban Agglomerations in China (2005–2020)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, June.
    5. De Yu & Shougeng Hu & Luyi Tong & Cong Xia, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Cultivated Land and Its Influences on Grain Production Potential in Hunan Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Xue Wang, 2022. "Changes in Cultivated Land Loss and Landscape Fragmentation in China from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, May.

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