Spatio-Temporal Relationship and Transition Patterns of Ecosystem Service Value and Land-Use Carbon Emissions on the Loess Plateau

Ecosystem services play a vital role in human well-being, with land-use changes exerting substantial influence on ecosystem service value (ESV) and land-use carbon emissions (LUCEs). Understanding the spatio-temporal relationship and transition dynamics between ESV and LUCEs is essential for promoting high-quality ecological development aligned with the “dual carbon” objective. This study takes the Loess Plateau as the research object. Based on five-phase land-use data from 2000 to 2020, the ESV and LUCEs are calculated. Exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis is used to explore their spatio-temporal relationship and transition paths, and the quadrant model is introduced to analyze the transition patterns from the perspective of ecological quality. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the ESV of the Loess Plateau increased from CNY 579.032 billion to CNY 582.470 billion, with an overall increase of only 0.15%. Among the changes in land use, changes in forest and grassland significantly affected the ESV. (2) The LUCEs from land use on the Loess Plateau increased from 137.15 Mt to 458.43 Mt, with an average annual growth rate of 6.22%. Affected by industrialization and urbanization, the LUCEs showed significant spatial differences at the provincial and county scales. (3) There was a certain positive spatial correlation between ESV and LUCEs. The distribution of significantly correlated areas did not change significantly from 2000 to 2020, and the relationship characteristics were mainly characterized by Type IV transitions. (4) At the county scale, ESV and LUCEs exhibited temporal stability, with most counties situated in the general ecological category, indicating substantial potential for enhancing regional ecological quality. These research outcomes offer a foundational framework for devising tailored regional carbon emission reduction strategies.