Spatiotemporal Evolution and Proximity Dynamics of “Three-Zone Spaces” in Yangtze River Basin Counties from 2000 to 2020

As the world’s third-longest river supporting 40% of China’s population, the Yangtze River Basin exemplifies the critical challenges of balancing riparian development and ecological resilience for major fluvial systems globally. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution, proximity dynamics to the Yangtze River, and driving mechanisms of the “three types of spaces” (urban, agricultural, and ecological) in 130 counties along the Yangtze River mainstem from 2000 to 2020, utilizing an integrated approach incorporating land use transfer matrices, centroid-based distance metrics and GeoDetector models. Key findings reveal: (1) Urban space exhibited significant irreversible expansion while agricultural space continued to shrink, with ecological space maintaining overall stability but showing high-frequency bidirectional conversion with agricultural areas in localized zones. (2) Spatial proximity analysis demonstrated contrasting patterns—eastern riparian counties showed urban spatial agglomeration towards the river, whereas most mid-western regions experienced urban expansion away from the watercourse, with marked regional disparities in agricultural and ecological spatial changes. (3) Driving mechanism analysis identified topography as the dominant natural factor influencing ecological space evolution, while socioeconomic factors exerted stronger impacts on proximity variations of agricultural and urban spaces, with natural–socioeconomic interactive effects showing the most significant explanatory power. These spatial dynamics reflect universal trade-offs between economic development and ecosystem conservation in large river basins worldwide. We advocate differentiated spatial governance strategies, including rigorous riparian ecological redlines, eco-agricultural models in agricultural retreat zones, and proximity-based real-time monitoring for ecological early warning. The integrated methodology and spatial governance framework offer transferable solutions for sustainable management of major fluvial systems under rapid urbanization pressure. These findings provide scientific evidence and implementable pathways for coordinating socioeconomic development with ecosystem resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.