Study on Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Carbon Stock in East Coastal Area of Zhejiang Based on InVEST and GIS Modeling

Global climate change, driven by increasing carbon emissions, poses a significant challenge to sustainable development, yet regional studies on carbon stock dynamics in rapidly urbanizing coastal areas remain limited. Utilizing the InVEST model and GIS spatial analysis methods, this research examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon stock in the eastern coastal regions of Zhejiang from 2000 to 2020. The primary findings are outlined as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, various land use categories experienced notable shifts, with the plow land area decreasing by 18.12%, the building site area expanding by 143.52%, the woodland area reducing by 0.08%, and the total land transfer area growing by 10.96% over the 20-year timespan. (2) Carbon stocks for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 55.996 × 10 6 t, 55.550 × 10 6 t, 55.223 × 10 6 t, 55.399 × 10 6 t, and 55.656 × 10 6 t, respectively, displaying a pattern of initial decline followed by a recovery, with a net reduction of 0.34 × 10 6 t. The shifts in carbon stock were mainly driven by conversions between land use types, with woodlands serving as the predominant carbon reservoir. (3) Global spatial correlation analysis reveals that carbon stocks across the five periods exhibit a distinct spatial convergence and clustering pattern; local spatial correlation analysis indicates that high-high agglomeration zones account for 4.48% of the study area, predominantly located in the mountainous regions of western Taizhou City, while low-low agglomeration zones range from 12.91% to 11.54% of the total study area, primarily situated in the urban centers of Jiaxing City and Ningbo City, areas characterized by dense populations and extensive building sites. This study provides a solid empirical basis for implementing China’s dual-carbon strategy, supporting the systematic assessment of existing carbon reserves and sink capacities, and promoting the expedited realization of carbon peaking and neutrality goals.