IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i8p1267-d1454620.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ecological Security Pattern Construction and Multi-Scenario Risk Early Warning (2020–2035) in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China

Author

Listed:
  • Junjie Ma

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

  • Zhixiong Mei

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

  • Xinyu Wang

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

  • Sichen Li

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

  • Jiangsen Liang

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

Abstract

The effectiveness of ecological security patterns (ESPs) in maintaining regional ecological stability and promoting sustainable development is widely recognized. However, limited research has focused on the early warning of risks inherent in ESPs. In this study, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GHKMGBA) is taken as the study area, and ecological security risk zones are delineated by combining the landscape ecological risk index and habitat quality, and a multi-level ESP is constructed based on the circuit theory. The PLUS model was employed to simulate future built-up land expansion under different scenarios, which were then extracted and overlaid with the multi-level ESP to enable the multi-scenario early warning of ESP risks. The results showed the following: The ESP in the central plains and coastal areas of the GHKMGBA exhibits a high level of ecological security risk, whereas the peripheral forested areas face less threat, which is crucial for regional ecological stability. The ESP, comprising ecological sources, corridors, and pinch points, is crucial for maintaining regional ecological flow stability, with tertiary corridors under significant stress and risk in all scenarios, requiring focused restoration and enhancement efforts. There are significant differences in risk early warning severity within the ESP across various development scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the ESP will have the best early warning situation, effectively protecting ecological land and reducing ecological damage, providing a valuable reference for regional development policies. However, it must not overlook economic development and still needs to further seek a balance between economic growth and ecological protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Junjie Ma & Zhixiong Mei & Xinyu Wang & Sichen Li & Jiangsen Liang, 2024. "Ecological Security Pattern Construction and Multi-Scenario Risk Early Warning (2020–2035) in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:8:p:1267-:d:1454620
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/8/1267/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/8/1267/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinzhao Chen & Zhixiong Mei & Bin Wang & Junchao Wei, 2022. "Construction of Ecological Security Patterns Based on Circuit Theory under the Resistance Distance Principle," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Ouyang, Xiao & Tang, Lisha & Wei, Xiao & Li, Yonghui, 2021. "Spatial interaction between urbanization and ecosystem services in Chinese urban agglomerations," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Shiru Wang & Qian Song & Jianyun Zhao & Zhibo Lu & Haoxiang Zhang, 2023. "Identification of Key Areas and Early-Warning Points for Ecological Protection and Restoration in the Yellow River Source Area Based on Ecological Security Pattern," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhanhao Dang & Baoqing Hu & Chunlian Gao & Shaoqiang Wen & Jinrui Ren & Yunfei Liang, 2025. "Construction and Optimization of the Ecological Security Pattern of Pinglu Canal Economic Zone Based on the InVEST-Circuit Theory Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weichen Zhang & Yuyang Fan & Bojie Wang, 2024. "Ecological Network Construction Based on Ecosystem Services and Landscape Pattern Indices in the Tabu River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Yang Zhang & Nazhalati Naerkezi & Yun Zhang & Bo Wang, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model in the Hexi Corridor, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Peng Cao & Xiao Ouyang & Jun Xu, 2022. "How Do Ecosystem Services Affect Poverty Reduction Efficiency? A Panel Data Analysis of State Poverty Counties in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Tan, Yanan & Jiang, Guoliang & Merajuddin, Shaheem Sayed & Zhao, Fang, 2025. "Urbanization and tourism economic development," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Yan Wu & Yingmei Wu & Chen Li & Binpin Gao & Kejun Zheng & Mengjiao Wang & Yuhong Deng & Xin Fan, 2022. "Spatial Relationships and Impact Effects between Urbanization and Ecosystem Health in Urban Agglomerations along the Belt and Road: A Case Study of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-20, November.
    6. Zhongxu Wang & Shengbo Chen & Junqiang Xu & Chao Ren & Yafeng Yu & Zibo Wang & Lei Wang & Yucheng Xu, 2024. "Integrating Ecosystem Service Assessment, Human Activity Impacts, and Priority Conservation Area Delineation into Ecological Management Frameworks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Lisha Tang & Hualou Long & Daniel P. Aldrich, 2023. "Putting a Price on Nature: Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Risk in the Dongting Lake Area, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Luwen Liu & Jiahui Wu & Liyan Yang & Guiling Tang & Wanxu Chen & Haifeng Wu & Yan Chen, 2024. "Conflict or Coordination? Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand in Chinese Urban Agglomerations," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, October.
    9. Jian Chang & Wanhua Li & Yaodong Zhou & Peng Zhang & Hengxin Zhang, 2022. "Impact of Public Service Quality on the Efficiency of the Water Industry: Evidence from 147 Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Qian Zhang & Decai Tang & Brandon J. Bethel, 2021. "Impact of Urbanization on the Environmental Regulation Efficiency in the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Empirical Analysis of Spatial Econometrics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-20, August.
    11. Weisong Li & Wanxu Chen & Jiaojiao Bian & Jun Xian & Li Zhan, 2022. "Impact of Urbanization on Ecosystem Services Balance in the Han River Ecological Economic Belt, China: A Multi-Scale Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-18, November.
    12. Shutong Yang & Peng Shi & Peng Li & Zhanbin Li & Hongbo Niu & Pengju Zu & Lingzhou Cui, 2022. "Ecosystem Services Trade-Offs and Synergies following Vegetation Restoration on the Loess Plateau of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    13. Xueyan Zheng & Minghui Zhu & Yan Shi & Hui Pei & Wenbin Nie & Xinge Nan & Xinyi Zhu & Guofu Yang & Zhiyi Bao, 2023. "Equity Analysis of the Green Space Allocation in China’s Eight Urban Agglomerations Based on the Theil Index and GeoDetector," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, March.
    14. Hongwu Liang & Alimujiang Kasimu & Haitao Ma & Yongyu Zhao & Xueling Zhang & Bohao Wei, 2022. "Exploring the Variations and Influencing Factors of Land Surface Temperature in the Urban Agglomeration on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    15. Saleh Qanazi & Ihab H. Hijazi & Isam Shahrour & Rani El Meouche, 2024. "Exploring Urban Service Location Suitability: Mapping Social Behavior Dynamics with Space Syntax Theory," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, April.
    16. Taquan Ma & Rui Liu & Zheng Li & Tongtu Ma, 2023. "Research on the Evolution Characteristics and Dynamic Simulation of Habitat Quality in the Southwest Mountainous Urban Agglomeration from 1990 to 2030," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-23, July.
    17. Chumki Shikary & Somnath Rudra, 2024. "Assessment of urban-to-urban interaction and its impact on urban development: a study on a backward district of Eastern India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 16863-16886, July.
    18. Xinmiao Liu & Xudong Zhang & Qi Shu & Zengwang Yao & Hailong Wu & Shenghua Gao, 2025. "Effects of Urbanization-Induced Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Anhui Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, June.
    19. Kexin Lei & Quanhua Hou & Yaqiong Duan & Yafei Xi & Su Chen & Yitong Miao & Haiyan Tong & Ziye Hu, 2024. "The Spatiotemporal Matching Relationship between Metro Networks and Urban Population from an Evolutionary Perspective: Passive Adaptation or Active Guidance?," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, August.
    20. Kassouri, Yacouba & Okunlola, Oluyemi Adewole, 2022. "Analysis of spatio-temporal drivers and convergence characteristics of urban development in Africa," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:8:p:1267-:d:1454620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.