Relationship between Ecosystem-Services Trade-Offs and Supply–Demand Balance along a Precipitation Gradient: A Case Study in the Central Loess Plateau of China

Although the theory of ecosystem services (ESs) is important for guiding land-use planning, knowledge of ESs trade-offs and supply–demand mechanisms is still lacking, and the characteristics of the correlation between the size of trade-offs and the balance between supply and demand along the precipitation gradient have not yet been clarified. In order to supplement this area of knowledge of ESs, we selected 30 small watersheds in high-, medium- and low-precipitation areas as study units. A biophysical model and socio-economic data were used to calculate supply and demand for carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yield. Redundancy analysis and regression analysis were used to study the ESs trade-offs, the supply–demand dynamics, and the characteristics of their correlation. The results were as follows. (1) The supply and balance between supply and demand of the three ESs, the trade-off between carbon sequestration and water yield and the trade-off between soil conservation and water yield trended downwards from the high-precipitation area to the medium-precipitation area to the low-precipitation area. (2) The primary factors influencing balance between supply and demand with regard to carbon sequestration in high-, medium- and low-precipitation areas were population density and soil organic-matter content, and the size of the conditional effects were greater than 53%. The dominant factor affecting the balance between supply and demand with regard to soil conservation in the three precipitation areas was slope gradient, and the conditional effect was greater than 40%. The most significant determinants of balance between supply and demand with regard to water yield in the three precipitation areas were grassland area, forest area and precipitation, and the conditional effects were greater than 22%. (3) The most significant determinants of the trade-off between carbon sequestration and water yield in high-, medium- and low-precipitation areas were forest, soil organic-matter content and population density, and the conditional effects were all greater than 45%; the primary factors affecting the trade-off between soil conservation and water yield in high-, medium- and low-precipitation areas were grassland and slope gradient, and the conditional effects were all greater than 24%. (4) The relationship between the balance between supply and demand and trade-off size often followed a quadratic function; the next-most-common relationship was a monotonous nonlinear response, and a linear response relationship was relatively rare. This study revealed the factors influencing balance between supply and demand and trade-offs with regard to ESs and the characteristics of their correlations in areas with different degrees of precipitation, which provided a new idea for the synchronous regulation of ESs in the context of conflicts and supply–demand imbalance.