IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i7p1422-d1195133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Modeling Approach for Analyzing the Hydrological Impacts of the Agribusiness Land-Use Scenarios in an Amazon Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Zandra A. Cunha

    (Water Resources Graduate Program, Federal University of Pelotas de Pelotas (UFPel), Gomes Carneito Street 1, Porto, Pelotas 96010-610, RS, Brazil)

  • Carlos R. Mello

    (Water Resources Department, School of Engineering, Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), Lavras 37200-900, MG, Brazil
    Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, College of ACES, University of Illinois at Ubana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Samuel Beskow

    (Water Resources Graduate Program, Federal University of Pelotas de Pelotas (UFPel), Gomes Carneito Street 1, Porto, Pelotas 96010-610, RS, Brazil)

  • Marcelle M. Vargas

    (Water Resources Graduate Program, Federal University of Pelotas de Pelotas (UFPel), Gomes Carneito Street 1, Porto, Pelotas 96010-610, RS, Brazil)

  • Jorge A. Guzman

    (Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, College of ACES, University of Illinois at Ubana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Maíra M. Moura

    (Water Resources Graduate Program, Federal University of Pelotas de Pelotas (UFPel), Gomes Carneito Street 1, Porto, Pelotas 96010-610, RS, Brazil)

Abstract

The Xingu River Basin (XRB) in the Brazilian Amazon region has a great relevance to the development of northern Brazil because of the Belo Monte hydropower plant and its crescent agribusiness expansion. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of the Lavras Simulation of the Hydrology (LASH) model to represent the main hydrological processes in the XRB and simulate the hydrological impacts in the face of land-use change scenarios. Following the trend of the most relevant agribusiness evolution in the XRB, four agribusiness scenarios (S) were structured considering the increase in grasslands (S 1 : 50% over the native forest; S 2 : 100% over the native forest) and soybean plantations (S 3 : 50% over the native forest; S 4 : 100% over native forest). Average hydrographs were simulated, and the frequency duration curves (FDC) and average annual values of the main hydrological components for each scenario were compared. The results showed that, in general, changes in land use based on deforestation in the XRB would lead to an increase in flood streamflow and a reduction in baseflow. The increases in direct surface runoff varied from 4.4% for S 1 to 29.8% for S 4 scenarios. The reduction in baseflow varied from −1.6% for S 1 to −4.9% for S 2 . These changes were reduced when the entire XRB was analyzed, but notable for the sub-basins in its headwater region, where the scenarios were more effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Zandra A. Cunha & Carlos R. Mello & Samuel Beskow & Marcelle M. Vargas & Jorge A. Guzman & Maíra M. Moura, 2023. "A Modeling Approach for Analyzing the Hydrological Impacts of the Agribusiness Land-Use Scenarios in an Amazon Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:7:p:1422-:d:1195133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/7/1422/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/7/1422/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nayara P. V. Andrade & Marcelo R. Viola & Samuel Beskow & Tamara L. Caldeira & Li Guo & Carlos R. Mello, 2020. "Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Soil Water Storage Using a Distributed Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 5031-5046, December.
    2. S. Mishra & Vijay Singh & J. Sansalone & V. Aravamuthan, 2003. "A Modified SCS-CN Method: Characterization and Testing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(1), pages 37-68, February.
    3. Ramon Felipe Bicudo da Silva & Mateus Batistella & Yue Dou & Emilio Moran & Sara McMillan Torres & Jianguo Liu, 2017. "The Sino-Brazilian Telecoupled Soybean System and Cascading Effects for the Exporting Country," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Samuel Beskow & Lloyd Norton & Carlos Mello, 2013. "Hydrological Prediction in a Tropical Watershed Dominated by Oxisols Using a Distributed Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 341-363, January.
    5. M. Viola & C. Mello & S. Beskow & L. Norton, 2014. "Impacts of Land-use Changes on the Hydrology of the Grande River Basin Headwaters, Southeastern Brazil," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4537-4550, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nayara P. V. Andrade & Marcelo R. Viola & Samuel Beskow & Tamara L. Caldeira & Li Guo & Carlos R. Mello, 2020. "Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Soil Water Storage Using a Distributed Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 5031-5046, December.
    2. Anna Herzberger & Min Gon Chung & Kelly Kapsar & Kenneth A. Frank & Jianguo Liu, 2019. "Telecoupled Food Trade Affects Pericoupled Trade and Intracoupled Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Meng Wang & Vikas Kumar & Ximing Ruan & Mohammed Saad & Jose Arturo Garza-Reyes & Anil Kumar, 2022. "Sustainability concerns on consumers’ attitude towards short food supply chains: an empirical investigation," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 76-92, June.
    4. Jian Zhang & Tao Tian & Jinying Cui & Gordon M. Hickey & Rui Zhou & Jianguo Liu & Youcai Xiong, 2021. "Sustainability Evaluation on the Grain to Green Program in the Hexi Corridor of China: A Metacoupled System Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-13, February.
    5. Béné, Christophe & Oosterveer, Peter & Lamotte, Lea & Brouwer, Inge D. & de Haan, Stef & Prager, Steve D. & Talsma, Elise F. & Khoury, Colin K., 2019. "When food systems meet sustainability – Current narratives and implications for actions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 116-130.
    6. Jun Guo & Jianzhong Zhou & Qiang Zou & Yi Liu & Lixiang Song, 2013. "A Novel Multi-Objective Shuffled Complex Differential Evolution Algorithm with Application to Hydrological Model Parameter Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2923-2946, June.
    7. Bruno Benzaquen Perosa & Ramon Felipe Bicudo da Silva & Mateus Batistella, 2024. "Market Access and Agricultural Diversification: An Analysis of Brazilian Municipalities," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, January.
    8. William J. McConnell & Andrés Viña, 2018. "Interactions between Food Security and Land Use in the Context of Global Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-3, April.
    9. Dou, Yue & Silva, Ramon Felipe Bicudo da & Batistella, Mateus & Torres, Sara & Moran, Emilio & Liu, Jianguo, 2023. "Mapping crop producer perceptions: The role of global drivers on local agricultural land use in Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Liesbeth de Schutter & Stefan Giljum & Tiina Häyhä & Martin Bruckner & Asjad Naqvi & Ines Omann & Sigrid Stagl, 2019. "Bioeconomy Transitions through the Lens of Coupled Social-Ecological Systems: A Framework for Place-Based Responsibility in the Global Resource System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-23, October.
    11. Jianzhu Li & Senming Tan, 2015. "Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis for Annual Flood Peak Series, Adopting Climate Indices and Check Dam Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5533-5550, December.
    12. Reis, Tiago N.P. dos & Bastos Lima, Mairon G. & Russo Lopes, Gabriela & Meyfroidt, Patrick, 2024. "Not all supply chains are created equal: The linkages between soy local trade relations and development outcomes in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    13. de Area Leão Pereira, Eder Johnson & de Santana Ribeiro, Luiz Carlos & da Silva Freitas, Lúcio Flávio & de Barros Pereira, Hernane Borges, 2020. "Brazilian policy and agribusiness damage the Amazon rainforest," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Shuai Zhou & Yimin Wang & Ziyan Li & Jianxia Chang & Aijun Guo, 2021. "Quantifying the Uncertainty Interaction Between the Model Input and Structure on Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3915-3935, September.
    15. Yhonattan Mendez Nobles & Humberto Avila Rangel & Lina Garcia Corrales, 2023. "Application of Participatory Methods to Explore Changes in Land Use of a Tropical Dry Forest Basin," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 25(1), pages 139-165.
    16. Cyr, Jean-François & Landry, Mathieu & Gagnon, Yves, 2011. "Methodology for the large-scale assessment of small hydroelectric potential: Application to the Province of New Brunswick (Canada)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2940-2950.
    17. Helge Bormann & Oliver Caspari, 2015. "On the Value of Hydrological Models Developed in the Context of Undergraduate Education for Discharge Prediction and Reservoir Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3569-3584, August.
    18. Andrew K. Carlson & Julie G. Zaehringer & Rachael D. Garrett & Ramon Felipe Bicudo Silva & Paul R. Furumo & Andrea N Raya Rey & Aurora Torres & Min Gon Chung & Yingjie Li & Jianguo Liu, 2018. "Toward Rigorous Telecoupling Causal Attribution: A Systematic Review and Typology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, November.
    19. Nobles, Yhonattan Mendez & Rangel, Humberto Avila & Corrales, Lina Garcia, . "Application of Participatory Methods to Explore Changes in Land Use of a Tropical Dry Forest Basin," Economia agro-alimentare / Food Economy, Italian Society of Agri-food Economics/Società Italiana di Economia Agro-Alimentare (SIEA), vol. 25(01).
    20. Yue Dou & Ramon Felipe Bicudo da Silva & Paul McCord & Julie G. Zaehringer & Hongbo Yang & Paul R. Furumo & Jian Zhang & J. Cristóbal Pizarro & Jianguo Liu, 2020. "Understanding How Smallholders Integrated into Pericoupled and Telecoupled Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:7:p:1422-:d:1195133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.