IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i10p1899-d1256466.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land Use/Cover Change Prediction Based on a New Hybrid Logistic-Multicriteria Evaluation-Cellular Automata-Markov Model Taking Hefei, China as an Example

Author

Listed:
  • Yecheng He

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Weicheng Wu

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Xinyuan Xie

    (School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210000, China)

  • Xinxin Ke

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Yifei Song

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Cuimin Zhou

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Wenjing Li

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Yuan Li

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Rong Jing

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Peixia Song

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Linqian Fu

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Chunlian Mao

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Meng Xie

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Sicheng Li

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Aohui Li

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Xiaoping Song

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Aiqing Chen

    (Key Lab of Digital Land and Resources and Faculty of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

Abstract

Land use/cover change (LUCC) detection and modeling play an important role in global environmental change research, in particular, policy-making to mitigate climate change, support land spatial planning, and achieve sustainable development. For the time being, a couple of hybrid models, such as cellular automata–Markov (CM), logistic–cellular automata-Markov (LCM), multicriteria evaluation (MCE), and multicriteria evaluation–cellular automata–Markov (MCM), are available. However, their disadvantages lie in either dependence on expert knowledge, ignoring the constraining factors, or without consideration of driving factors. For this purpose, we proposed in this paper a new hybrid model, the logistic–multicriteria evaluation–cellular automata–Markov (LMCM) model, that uses the fully standardized logistic regression coefficients as impact weights of the driving factors to represent their importance on each land use type in order to avoid these defects but is able to better predict the future land use pattern with higher accuracy taking Hefei, China as a study area. Based on field investigation, Landsat images dated 2010, 2015, and 2020, together with digital elevation model (DEM) data, were harnessed for land use/cover (LUC) mapping using a supervised classification approach, which was achieved with high overall accuracy (AC) and reliability (AC > 95%). LUC changes in the periods 2010–2015 and 2015–2020 were hence detected using a post-classification differencing approach. Based on the LUC patterns of the study area in 2010 and 2015, the one of 2020 was simulated by the LMCM, CM, LCM, and MCM models under the same conditions and then compared with the classified LUC map of 2020. The results show that the LMCM model performs better than the other three models with a higher simulation accuracy, i.e., 1.72–5.4%, 2.14–6.63%, and 2.78–9.33% higher than the CM, LCM, and MCM models, respectively. For this reason, we used the LMCM model to simulate and predict the LUC pattern of the study area in 2025. It is expected that the results of the simulation may provide scientific support for spatial planning of territory in Hefei, and the LMCM model can be applied to other areas in China and the world for similar purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Yecheng He & Weicheng Wu & Xinyuan Xie & Xinxin Ke & Yifei Song & Cuimin Zhou & Wenjing Li & Yuan Li & Rong Jing & Peixia Song & Linqian Fu & Chunlian Mao & Meng Xie & Sicheng Li & Aohui Li & Xiaoping, 2023. "Land Use/Cover Change Prediction Based on a New Hybrid Logistic-Multicriteria Evaluation-Cellular Automata-Markov Model Taking Hefei, China as an Example," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:10:p:1899-:d:1256466
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/10/1899/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/10/1899/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Megersa Kebede Leta & Tamene Adugna Demissie & Jens Tränckner, 2021. "Modeling and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Dynamics Based on Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Nashe Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Grace Lee & Edwin Chan, 2008. "The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Approach for Assessment of Urban Renewal Proposals," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 155-168, October.
    3. Wang, Quan & Wang, Haijun & Chang, Ruihan & Zeng, Haoran & Bai, Xuepiao, 2022. "Dynamic simulation patterns and spatiotemporal analysis of land-use/land-cover changes in the Wuhan metropolitan area, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    4. Wenchao Huangfu & Weicheng Wu & Xiaoting Zhou & Ziyu Lin & Guiliang Zhang & Renxiang Chen & Yong Song & Tao Lang & Yaozu Qin & Penghui Ou & Yang Zhang & Lifeng Xie & Xiaolan Huang & Xiao Fu & Jie Li &, 2021. "Landslide Geo-Hazard Risk Mapping Using Logistic Regression Modeling in Guixi, Jiangxi, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sonu Thaivalappil Sukumaran & Stephen J. Birkinshaw, 2024. "Investigating the Impact of Recent and Future Urbanization on Flooding in an Indian River Catchment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Weiwei Li & Pingtao Yi & Danning Zhang, 2018. "Sustainability Evaluation of Cities in Northeastern China Using Dynamic TOPSIS-Entropy Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Ana Sara Costa & Isabella M. Lami & Salvatore Greco & José Rui Figueira & José Borbinha, 2021. "Assigning a house for refugees: an application of a multiple criteria nominal classification method," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 2651-2687, December.
    4. Dengkuo Sun & Yuefeng Lu & Yong Qin & Miao Lu & Zhenqi Song & Ziqi Ding, 2024. "Method for Evaluating Urban Building Renewal Potential Based on Multimachine Learning Integration: A Case Study of Longgang and Longhua Districts in Shenzhen," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Jinliu Chen & Paola Pellegrini & Haoqi Wang, 2022. "Comparative Residents’ Satisfaction Evaluation for Socially Sustainable Regeneration—The Case of Two High-Density Communities in Suzhou," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Dillip Kumar Das, 2021. "Revitalising South African City Centres Through ICT," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(4), pages 228-241.
    8. Julian Canto-Perello & Maria P. Martinez-Garcia & Jorge Curiel-Esparza & Manuel Martin-Utrillas, 2015. "Implementing Sustainability Criteria for Selecting a Roof Assembly Typology in Medium Span Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh & Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki & Amirreza Morshed-Bozorgdel & Saeed Farzin, 2022. "A New Methodology for Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis under Climate Change Conditions Based on Machine Learning, Multi Criteria Decision Making and Monte Carlo Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-37, February.
    10. Yuanzhi Guo & Xuhong Li, 2025. "The evolution and driving mechanism of education inequality in China: From 2003 to 2020," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    11. Yang Zhang & Nazhalati Naerkezi & Yun Zhang & Bo Wang, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model in the Hexi Corridor, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    12. Mardani, Abbas & Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras & Khalifah, Zainab & Zakuan, Norhayati & Jusoh, Ahmad & Nor, Khalil Md & Khoshnoudi, Masoumeh, 2017. "A review of multi-criteria decision-making applications to solve energy management problems: Two decades from 1995 to 2015," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 216-256.
    13. Sung-Ho Kil & Dong Kun Lee & Jun-Hyun Kim & Ming-Han Li & Galen Newman, 2016. "Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Establish Weighted Values for Evaluating the Stability of Slope Revegetation based on Hydroseeding Applications in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Yajun Ma & Ping Zhang & Kaixu Zhao & Yong Zhou & Sidong Zhao, 2022. "A Dynamic Performance and Differentiation Management Policy for Urban Construction Land Use Change in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-31, June.
    15. Omar Sharaf-addeen Alansary & Tareq Al-Ansari, 2023. "Developing a Strategic Sustainability Assessment Methodology for Free Zones Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-28, June.
    16. Jurgita Raudeliuniene & Eva Trinkuniene & Aurelija Burinskiene & Raimonda Bubliene, 2025. "Application of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach COPRAS for Developing Sustainable Building Practices in the European Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-26, April.
    17. Yilun Zhao & Yan Rong & Yiyi Liu & Tianshu Lin & Liangji Kong & Qinqin Dai & Runzi Wang, 2023. "Investigating Urban Flooding and Nutrient Export under Different Urban Development Scenarios in the Rouge River Watershed in Michigan, USA," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-25, December.
    18. O. Flores Baquero & J. Gallego-Ayala & R. Giné-Garriga & A. Jiménez-Fernández. Palencia & A. Pérez-Foguet, 2017. "The Influence of the Human Rights to Water and Sanitation Normative Content in Measuring the Level of Service," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 763-786, September.
    19. Lesong Zhao & Guangsheng Liu & Chunlong Xian & Jiaqi Nie & Yao Xiao & Zhigang Zhou & Xiting Li & Hongmei Wang, 2022. "Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-20, July.
    20. Fang He & Wendong Wu & Taozhi Zhuang & Yuan Yi, 2019. "Exploring the Diverse Expectations of Stakeholders in Industrial Land Redevelopment Projects in China: The Case of Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-27, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:10:p:1899-:d:1256466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.