IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v10y2021i6p599-d569381.html

Simulation of Spatiotemporal Relationship between COVID-19 Propagation and Regional Economic Development in China

Author

Listed:
  • Dongya Liu

    (School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xinqi Zheng

    (School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Lei Zhang

    (School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
    Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen 518034, China)

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) propagation in 2019 posed serious threats and challenges to human public health and safety. Currently, COVID-19 is still not effectively controlled in certain countries and regions. This study combines the traditional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, system dynamics (SD) model, and cellular automata (CA) model to construct a spatiotemporal dynamics pandemic model (SDPM). The SDPM is used to dynamically depict the spatiotemporal diffusion and outbreak of COVID-19 through research on the relationship between epidemic spread and regional development. The results show that: (1) There is a positive correlation between regional development and epidemic spread. The more developed the regional economy, especially in areas with short-range population migration from Hubei Province, the more severe the epidemic spread; and (2) The spatial isolation and control measures adopted by the government can effectively prevent the COVID-19 spread. The results explore the relationship between COVID-19 spread and regional economic development by studying the spatial and temporal transmission characteristics of COVID-19, and provide a scientific reference for the government to formulate reasonable response measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongya Liu & Xinqi Zheng & Lei Zhang, 2021. "Simulation of Spatiotemporal Relationship between COVID-19 Propagation and Regional Economic Development in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:6:p:599-:d:569381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/6/599/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/6/599/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tian, Guangjin & Ouyang, Yun & Quan, Quan & Wu, Jianguo, 2011. "Simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization with multi-agent systems—A case study of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(5), pages 1129-1138.
    2. Phenyo E. Lekone & Bärbel F. Finkenstädt, 2006. "Statistical Inference in a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model with Control Intervention: Ebola as a Case Study," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 1170-1177, December.
    3. Sun, Tingzhe & Wang, Yan, 2020. "Modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Heilongjiang province, China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Ahmed, E. & Agiza, H.N., 1998. "On modeling epidemics Including latency, incubation and variable susceptibility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 347-352.
    5. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Wang, Hongbin, 2020. "Land-use Simulation and Decision-Support system (LandSDS): Seamlessly integrating system dynamics, agent-based model, and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 417(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiwei Zhang & Shiyong Liu & Nathaniel Osgood & Hongli Zhu & Ying Qian & Peng Jia, 2023. "Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 207-234, January.
    2. Wang, Peipei & Liu, Haiyan & Zheng, Xinqi & Ma, Ruifang, 2023. "A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Celia Sama-Berrocal & Beatriz Corchuelo Martínez-Azúa, 2022. "How Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected the Different Branches of the Agri-Food Industry in Extremadura (Spain)?," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-29, June.
    4. Fei Han & Xinqi Zheng & Peipei Wang & Dongya Liu & Minrui Zheng, 2022. "Effects of Meteorological Factors and Air Pollutants on COVID-19 Transmission under the Action of Control Measures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-19, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu Tang & Yiwang Zhou & Lili Wang & Soumik Purkayastha & Leyao Zhang & Jie He & Fei Wang & Peter X.‐K. Song, 2020. "A Review of Multi‐Compartment Infectious Disease Models," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 462-513, August.
    2. Zeng, Haoran & Wang, Haijun & Zhang, Bin & Song, Youcheng & Cao, Xiaoxu & Li, Qiyuan, 2024. "A new cellular automata framework of urban growth modeling by incorporating land use policies and economic development zone planning," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 498(C).
    3. Kamara, Abdul A. & Wang, Xiangjun & Mouanguissa, Lagès Nadège, 2020. "Analytical solution for post-death transmission model of Ebola epidemics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    4. Talal Daghriri & Michael Proctor & Sarah Matthews, 2022. "Evolution of Select Epidemiological Modeling and the Rise of Population Sentiment Analysis: A Literature Review and COVID-19 Sentiment Illustration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Hao Wang & Yunfeng Hu, 2021. "Simulation of Biocapacity and Spatial-Temporal Evolution Analysis of Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi Based on the CA–Markov Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Shivangi S. Somvanshi & Oshin Bhalla & Phool Kunwar & Madhulika Singh & Prafull Singh, 2020. "Monitoring spatial LULC changes and its growth prediction based on statistical models and earth observation datasets of Gautam Budh Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1073-1091, February.
    7. Chasia, Stanley & Olang, Luke O. & Sitoki, Lewis, 2023. "Modelling of land-use/cover change trajectories in a transboundary catchment of the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Region in East Africa using the CLUE-s model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    8. Erik Pruyt & Willem L. Auping & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2015. "Ebola in West Africa: Model-Based Exploration of Social Psychological Effects and Interventions," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 2-14, January.
    9. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    10. Robin N Thompson & Christopher A Gilligan & Nik J Cunniffe, 2016. "Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, April.
    11. Maria Vittoria Barbarossa & Attila Dénes & Gábor Kiss & Yukihiko Nakata & Gergely Röst & Zsolt Vizi, 2015. "Transmission Dynamics and Final Epidemic Size of Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks with Varying Interventions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Yin Ma & Minrui Zheng & Xinqi Zheng & Yi Huang & Feng Xu & Xiaoli Wang & Jiantao Liu & Yongqiang Lv & Wenchao Liu, 2023. "Land Use Efficiency Assessment under Sustainable Development Goals: A Systematic Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, April.
    13. Attar, M. Aykut & Tekin-Koru, Ayça, 2022. "Latent social distancing: Identification, causes and consequences," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    14. Zhanna A. Buryak & Olesya I. Grigoreva & Artyom V. Gusarov, 2023. "A Predictive Model for Cropland Transformation at the Regional Level: A Case Study of the Belgorod Oblast, European Russia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-16, October.
    15. Eleni Zavrakli & Andrew Parnell & David Malone & Ken Duffy & Subhrakanti Dey, 2023. "Optimal age-specific vaccination control for COVID-19: An Irish case study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(9), pages 1-38, September.
    16. Taraghi, Mahdi & Yoder, Landon, 2025. "Integrating the theory of planned behavior in agent-based models: A systematic review of applications of pro-environmental behaviors," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 508(C).
    17. Hongbin Liu & Mengyao Wu & Xinhua Liu & Jiaju Gao & Xiaojuan Luo & Yan Wu, 2021. "Simulation of Policy Tools’ Effects on Farmers’ Adoption of Conservation Tillage Technology: An Empirical Analysis in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, October.
    18. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Wang, Hongbin, 2020. "Land-use Simulation and Decision-Support system (LandSDS): Seamlessly integrating system dynamics, agent-based model, and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 417(C).
    19. Leigh Fisher & Jon Wakefield & Cici Bauer & Steve Self, 2017. "Time series modeling of pathogen-specific disease probabilities with subsampled data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 283-293, March.
    20. Ghanbari, Behzad, 2020. "On forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 in Iran: The second wave," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:6:p:599-:d:569381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.