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Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Eric L. Bullock

    (US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USA)

  • Sean P. Healey

    (US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USA)

  • Zhiqiang Yang

    (US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USA)

  • Phoebe Oduor

    (Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, Kenya)

  • Noel Gorelick

    (Google Switzerland, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Steve Omondi

    (Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, Kenya)

  • Edward Ouko

    (Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, Kenya)

  • Warren B. Cohen

    (USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA)

Abstract

Population growth rates in Sub-Saharan East Africa are among the highest in the world, creating increasing pressure for land cover conversion. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive assessment of regional land cover change, and most long-term trends have not yet been quantified. Using a designed sample of satellite-based observations of historical land cover change, we estimate the areas and trends in nine land cover classes from 1998 to 2017 in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. Our analysis found an 18,154,000 (±1,580,000) ha, or 34.8%, increase in the area of cropland in East Africa. Conversion occurred primarily from Open Grasslands, Wooded Grasslands, and Open Forests, causing a large-scale reduction in woody vegetation classes. We observed far more conversion (by approximately 20 million hectares) of woody classes to less-woody classes than succession in the direction of increasing trees and shrubs. Spatial patterns within our sample highlight regional land cover conversion hotspots, such as the Central Zambezian Miombo Woodlands, as potential areas of concern related to the conservation of natural ecosystems. Our findings reflect a rapidly growing population that is moving into new areas, with a 43.5% increase in the area of Settlements over the three-decade period. Our results show the areas and ecoregions most impacted by three decades of human development, both spatially and statistically.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric L. Bullock & Sean P. Healey & Zhiqiang Yang & Phoebe Oduor & Noel Gorelick & Steve Omondi & Edward Ouko & Warren B. Cohen, 2021. "Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:2:p:150-:d:492257
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iain M. McNicol & Casey M. Ryan & Edward T. A. Mitchard, 2018. "Carbon losses from deforestation and widespread degradation offset by extensive growth in African woodlands," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Z. S. Venter & M. D. Cramer & H.-J. Hawkins, 2018. "Drivers of woody plant encroachment over Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    3. Berhanu Keno Terfa & Nengcheng Chen & Dandan Liu & Xiang Zhang & Dev Niyogi, 2019. "Urban Expansion in Ethiopia from 1987 to 2017: Characteristics, Spatial Patterns, and Driving Forces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-21, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Manakos & Garik Gutman & Chariton Kalaitzidis, 2021. "Monitoring Land Cover Change: Towards Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-2, December.
    2. Dietz, Julia & Treydte, Anna Christina & Lippe, Melvin, 2023. "Exploring the future of Kafue National Park, Zambia: Scenario-based land use and land cover modelling to understand drivers and impacts of deforestation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. John Walker Recha & Gebermedihin Ambaw & Abebe Nigussie & Maren Radeny & Dawit Solomon, 2022. "Soil Nutrient Contents in East African Climate-Smart Villages: Effects of Climate-Smart Agriculture Interventions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Barasa Bernard & Majaliwa J. G. Mwanjalolo & Banduga Moses & Katwere James & Magaya Paul & Sadadi Ojoatre & Wanjiru Lydia & Margaret N. Walusimbi, 2022. "A Simplified Spatial Methodology for Assessing Land Productivity Status in Africa," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.

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