IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i6p285-d1155166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

RCML: A Novel Algorithm for Regressing Price Movement during Commodity Futures Stress Testing Based on Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Caifeng Liu

    (Post-Doctoral Workstation, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Dalian 116000, China)

  • Wenfeng Pan

    (Futures Information Technology Co., Ltd., Dalian Commodity Exchange, Dalian 116000, China)

  • Hongcheng Zhou

    (Futures Information Technology Co., Ltd., Dalian Commodity Exchange, Dalian 116000, China)

Abstract

Stress testing, an essential part of the risk management toolkit of financial institutions, refers to the evaluation of a portfolio’s potential risk under an extreme, but plausible, scenario. The most representative method for performing stress testing is historical scenario simulation, which aims to evaluate historical adverse market events on the current portfolios of financial institutions. However, some current commodities were not listed in the commodity futures market at the time of the historical event, causing a lack of the necessary price information to revalue the current positions of these commodities. To avoid over reliance on human hypothesis for these non-existent commodity futures, we propose a novel approach, RCML, to infer reasonable price movements for commodities unlisted in historical events. Unlike the previous methods, based on subjective hypothesis, RCML takes advantage of not only machine learning algorithms, but also multi-view information. Back testing and hypothesis testing are adopted to prove the rationality of RCML results.

Suggested Citation

  • Caifeng Liu & Wenfeng Pan & Hongcheng Zhou, 2023. "RCML: A Novel Algorithm for Regressing Price Movement during Commodity Futures Stress Testing Based on Machine Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-12, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:6:p:285-:d:1155166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/6/285/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/6/285/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre-Antoine Mudry & Florentina Paraschiv, 2016. "Stress-Testing for Portfolios of Commodity Futures with Extreme Value Theory and Copula Functions," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Raquel J. Fonseca & Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber & João Telhada (ed.), Computational Management Science, edition 1, pages 17-22, Springer.
    2. Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Agrapetidou, Anna, 2018. "Forecasting bank failures and stress testing: A machine learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 440-455.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2020. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Alessandro Staino & Emilio Russo & Massimo Costabile & Arturo Leccadito, 2023. "Minimum capital requirement and portfolio allocation for non-life insurance: a semiparametric model with Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraint," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-32, December.
    3. Anton Gerunov, 2023. "Modern Approaches To Forecasting Firm Default Rates Over The Short To Medium Term: An Application To A Panel Of Polish Companies," Yearbook of the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria, vol. 22(1), pages 5-15, October.
    4. Veganzones, David & Séverin, Eric & Chlibi, Souhir, 2023. "Influence of earnings management on forecasting corporate failure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 123-143.
    5. Suss, Joel & Treitel, Henry, 2019. "Predicting bank distress in the UK with machine learning," Bank of England working papers 831, Bank of England.
    6. Andrés Giovanni Camacho Ardila & Federico Hernández Álvarez & Luis Ignacio Román de la Sancha, 2023. "Ciclos en el Sector Bancario Mexicano: un Índice Coincidente (CP1G7) vía ACP," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(4), pages 1-25, Octubre -.
    7. Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Krzysztof Jackowicz & Maciej Karczmarczyk, 2021. "“The Crooked Smile of TCR†: Banks’ Solvency and Restructuring Costs in the European Banking Industry," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, September.
    8. Kea BARET & Theophilos PAPADIMITRIOU, 2019. "On the Stability and Growth Pact compliance: what is predictable with machine learning?," Working Papers of BETA 2019-48, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.
    10. Kristóf, Tamás & Virág, Miklós, 2022. "EU-27 bank failure prediction with C5.0 decision trees and deep learning neural networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
    12. Jean Armand Gnagne & Kevin Moran, 2018. "Monitoring Bank Failures in a Data-Rich Environment," Cahiers de recherche 1815, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    13. Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Zhang, Wenke, 2023. "Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 1-16.
    14. Cullen F. Goenner, 2020. "Uncertain times and early predictions of bank failure," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 583-601, November.
    15. Yi Cao & Xiaoquan Liu & Jia Zhai & Shan Hua, 2022. "A two‐stage Bayesian network model for corporate bankruptcy prediction," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 455-472, January.
    16. Katsafados, Apostolos G. & Androutsopoulos, Ion & Chalkidis, Ilias & Fergadiotis, Manos & Leledakis, George N. & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G., 2020. "Textual Information and IPO Underpricing: A Machine Learning Approach," MPRA Paper 103813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria-Artemis Matthaiou, 2022. "Supervision of Banking Networks Using the Multivariate Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (mT-MDS)," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-13, June.
    18. Kea BARET, 2021. "Fiscal rules’ compliance and Social Welfare," Working Papers of BETA 2021-38, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    19. Buckmann, Marcus & Haldane, Andy & Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2021. "Comparing minds and machines: implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 937, Bank of England.
    20. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2020. "Machine learning as an early warning system to predict financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:6:p:285-:d:1155166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.