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Reliability of Early Estimates of the Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bibha Dhungel

    (Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan
    Department of Health Policy, National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo 157-8535, Japan)

  • Md. Shafiur Rahman

    (Research Centre for Child Mental Development, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, Hamamatsu 431-3192, Japan
    United Graduate School of Child Development, Osaka University, Kanazawa University, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, Chiba University and University of Fukui, Hamamatsu 431-3192, Japan)

  • Md. Mahfuzur Rahman

    (Global Public Health Research Foundation, Dhaka 1230, Bangladesh)

  • Aliza K. C. Bhandari

    (Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan
    Department of Health Policy, National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo 157-8535, Japan)

  • Phuong Mai Le

    (Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan)

  • Nushrat Alam Biva

    (Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan)

  • Stuart Gilmour

    (Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan)

Abstract

Objective: This systematic review estimated the pooled R 0 for early COVID-19 outbreaks and identified the impact of study-related factors such as methods, study location and study period on the estimated R 0 . Methods: We searched electronic databases for human studies published in English between 1 December 2019 and 30 September 2020 with no restriction on country/region. Two investigators independently performed the data extraction of the studies selected for inclusion during full-text screening. The primary outcome, R 0 , was analysed by random-effects meta-analysis using the restricted maximum likelihood method. Results: We identified 26,425 studies through our search and included 151 articles in the systematic review, among which 81 were included in the meta-analysis. The estimates of R 0 from studies included in the meta-analysis ranged from 0.4 to 12.58. The pooled R 0 for COVID-19 was estimated to be 2.66 (95% CI, 2.41–2.94). The results showed heterogeneity among studies and strong evidence of a small-study effect. Conclusions: The high heterogeneity in studies makes the use of the R 0 for basic epidemic planning difficult and presents a huge problem for risk assessment and data synthesis. Consensus on the use of R 0 for outbreak assessment is needed, and its use for assessing epidemic risk is not recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Bibha Dhungel & Md. Shafiur Rahman & Md. Mahfuzur Rahman & Aliza K. C. Bhandari & Phuong Mai Le & Nushrat Alam Biva & Stuart Gilmour, 2022. "Reliability of Early Estimates of the Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:18:p:11613-:d:915500
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Raymond Gani & Steve Leach, 2001. "Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations," Nature, Nature, vol. 414(6865), pages 748-751, December.
    3. Md Arif Billah & Md Mamun Miah & Md Nuruzzaman Khan, 2020. "Reproductive number of coronavirus: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Md. Enamul Hoque, 2020. "Estimation of the number of affected people due to the Covid-19 pandemic using susceptible, infected and recover model," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 31(08), pages 1-5, August.
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