IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i9p4905-d548872.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Risk and Decision Analysis Framework to Evaluate Future PM 2.5 Risk: A Case Study in Los Angeles-Long Beach Metro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Bowen He

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235, USA)

  • Qun Guan

    (College of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

Abstract

This study examines the L.A.-Long Beach Metro area concerning the future risk of the PM 2.5 concentration increase. Population expansion, economic growth, and temperature increase are incorporated to estimate the probability of the magnitude of PM 2.5 emission increase. Three possible sectors for the reduction of PM 2.5 emissions are considered: ocean-going vessels, refineries, and electricity-generating units. The decision of how best to allocate emissions-reduction efforts among these three sectors is analyzed using a quantitative and qualitative decision-analysis framework. For quantitative analysis, Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected Utility (EU) methods are used to select the optimal sector to invest in. Based on the EMV calculation, the refineries sector is 3.5 times and 6.4 times more worthy of investment compared to the electricity-generating units and the ocean-going vessels sector, respectively. For the qualitative analysis, three criteria (investment efficiency, implementation difficulty, time to become effective) are considered in the decision-making process and sensitivity analysis is conducted to inform the ocean-going vessel sector is the optimal alternative for all possible scenarios. The refineries sector is more preferred than the electricity-generating units sector when the implementation difficulty’s weight is smaller than 50%. This study provides a valuable risk and decision analysis framework for analyzing the air pollution problem associated with the future PM 2.5 concentration increase caused by three risk factors: population growth, economic growth, and climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowen He & Qun Guan, 2021. "A Risk and Decision Analysis Framework to Evaluate Future PM 2.5 Risk: A Case Study in Los Angeles-Long Beach Metro Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-23, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:9:p:4905-:d:548872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/9/4905/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/9/4905/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yaolin Lin & Jiale Zou & Wei Yang & Chun-Qing Li, 2018. "A Review of Recent Advances in Research on PM 2.5 in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Krupnick, Alan J. & Oates, Wallace E. & Van De Verg, Eric, 1983. "On marketable air-pollution permits: The case for a system of pollution offsets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 233-247, September.
    3. Cristina Mangia & Marco Cervino & Emilio Antonio Luca Gianicolo, 2015. "Secondary Particulate Matter Originating from an Industrial Source and Its Impact on Population Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Wenhua Yu & Yuming Guo & Liuhua Shi & Shanshan Li, 2020. "The association between long-term exposure to low-level PM2.5 and mortality in the state of Queensland, Australia: A modelling study with the difference-in-differences approach," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(6), pages 1-19, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanzhao Wang & Jianfei Cao, 2023. "Examining the Effects of Socioeconomic Development on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in China’s Cities Based on Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis and MGWR Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Chao-Ning Liao, 2009. "Technology adoption decisions under a mixed regulatory system of tradable permits and air pollution fees for the control of Total Suspended Particulates in Taiwan," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 135-153, April.
    3. Liao, Chao-Ning, 2007. "Modelling a mixed system of air pollution fee and tradable permits for controlling nitrogen oxide: a case study of Taiwan," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1-16.
    4. Nan Jia & Yinshuai Li & Ruishan Chen & Hongbo Yang, 2023. "A Review of Global PM 2.5 Exposure Research Trends from 1992 to 2022," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Smith, Kerry & Schwabe, Kurt A. & Mansfield, Carol, 1997. "Does Nature Limit Environmental Federalism?," Working Papers 97-01, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    6. Wei Xue & Qingming Zhan & Qi Zhang & Zhonghua Wu, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Variations of Particulate and Gaseous Pollutants and Their Relations to Meteorological Parameters: The Case of Xiangyang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-23, December.
    7. Yu-Bong Lai, 2007. "The Optimal Distribution of Pollution Rights in the Presence of Political Distortions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(3), pages 367-388, March.
    8. Hannah M. Mason & Jemma C. King & Amy E. Peden & Kerrianne Watt & Emma Bosley & Gerard Fitzgerald & John Nairn & Lauren Miller & Nicole Mandalios & Richard C. Franklin, 2023. "Determining the Impact of Heatwaves on Emergency Ambulance Calls in Queensland: A Retrospective Population-Based Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Robert W. Hahn & Robert N. Stavins, 2011. "The Effect of Allowance Allocations on Cap-and-Trade System Performance," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(S4), pages 267-294.
    10. Jay S. Coggins & Andrew L. Goodkind & Jason Nguyen & Zhiyu Wang, 2019. "Price Effects, Inefficient Environmental Policy, and Windfall Profits," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(3), pages 637-656, March.
    11. Y. Ermoliev & M. Michalevich & A. Nentjes, 2000. "Markets for Tradeable Emission and Ambient Permits: A Dynamic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 15(1), pages 39-56, January.
    12. Wendi Qu & Hao Hua & Ting Yang & Constantin M. Zohner & Josep Peñuelas & Jing Wei & Le Yu & Chaoyang Wu, 2025. "Delayed leaf green-up is associated with fine particulate air pollution in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Wojciechowski, Jan & Miller, Bill R., 1998. "Institutions And Economics Of Pollution Trading," Faculty Series 16684, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    14. Dallas Burtraw & Keneth Harrison & Paul Turner, 1998. "Improving Efficiency in Bilateral Emission Trading," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 19-33, January.
    15. Simon Quemin & Christian Perthuis, 2019. "Transitional Restricted Linkage Between Emissions Trading Schemes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 1-32, September.
    16. Hung, Ming-Feng & Shaw, Daigee, 2005. "A trading-ratio system for trading water pollution discharge permits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 83-102, January.
    17. Schwartz Sonia, 2007. "Market Power Effects on Market Equilibrium in Ambient Permit Markets," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, February.
    18. John Swinton, 2004. "Phase I Completed: An Empirical Assessment of the 1990 CAAA," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 27(3), pages 227-246, March.
    19. Hugo Wai Leung Mak & Daisy Chiu Yi Ng, 2021. "Spatial and Socio-Classification of Traffic Pollutant Emissions and Associated Mortality Rates in High-Density Hong Kong via Improved Data Analytic Approaches," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-27, June.
    20. Alimata Sidibe & Yosuke Sakamoto & Kentaro Murano & Ousmane A. Koita & Ibrahim Traore & Yacouba Dansoko & Yoshizumi Kajii, 2022. "Personal Exposure to Fine Particles (PM 2.5 ) in Northwest Africa: Case of the Urban City of Bamako in Mali," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:9:p:4905-:d:548872. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.