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Preliminary Analysis of Relationships between COVID19 and Climate, Morphology, and Urbanization in the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy)

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Fazzini

    (INGEO, University of Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy)

  • Claudia Baresi

    (Poliambulanza Foundation Hospital, 25124 Brescia, Italy)

  • Carlo Bisci

    (School of Science and Technology, University of Camerino, 62032 Camerino, Italy)

  • Claudio Bna

    (Poliambulanza Foundation Hospital, 25124 Brescia, Italy)

  • Alessandro Cecili

    (Department of Geology, University Roma Tre, 00187 Roma, Italy)

  • Andrea Giuliacci

    (Department of Physics, University of Milan Bicocca, 20124 Milan, Italy)

  • Sonia Illuminati

    (Poliambulanza Foundation Hospital, 25124 Brescia, Italy)

  • Fabrizio Pregliasco

    (IRCCS Istituto Ortopedico Galeazzi, University of Milan, 20136 Milan, Italy)

  • Enrico Miccadei

    (INGEO, University of Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy)

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the most severe global health and socioeconomic crisis of our time, and represents the greatest challenge faced by the world since the end of the Second World War. The academic literature indicates that climatic features, specifically temperature and absolute humidity, are very important factors affecting infectious pulmonary disease epidemics - such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); however, the influence of climatic parameters on COVID-19 remains extremely controversial. The goal of this study is to individuate relationships between several climate parameters (temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, solar radiation, evaporation, and wind direction and intensity), local morphological parameters, and new daily positive swabs for COVID-19, which represents the only parameter that can be statistically used to quantify the pandemic. The daily deaths parameter was not considered, because it is not reliable, due to frequent administrative errors. Daily data on meteorological conditions and new cases of COVID-19 were collected for the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy) from 1 March, 2020 to 20 April, 2020. This region exhibited the largest rate of official deaths in the world, with a value of approximately 1700 per million on 30 June 2020. Moreover, the apparent lethality was approximately 17% in this area, mainly due to the considerable housing density and the extensive presence of industrial and craft areas. Both the Mann–Kendall test and multivariate statistical analysis showed that none of the considered climatic variables exhibited statistically significant relationships with the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19, at least during spring months in temperate subcontinental climate areas, with the exception of solar radiation, which was directly related and showed an otherwise low explained variability of approximately 20%. Furthermore, the average temperatures of two highly representative meteorological stations of Molise and Lucania (Southern Italy), the most weakly affected by the pandemic, were approximately 1.5 °C lower than those in Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), again confirming that a significant relationship between the increase in temperature and decrease in virulence from COVID-19 is not evident, at least in Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Fazzini & Claudia Baresi & Carlo Bisci & Claudio Bna & Alessandro Cecili & Andrea Giuliacci & Sonia Illuminati & Fabrizio Pregliasco & Enrico Miccadei, 2020. "Preliminary Analysis of Relationships between COVID19 and Climate, Morphology, and Urbanization in the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:19:p:6955-:d:417895
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicola Scafetta, 2020. "Distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Its Monthly Forecast Based on Seasonal Climate Patterns," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Sorin Cheval & Cristian Mihai Adamescu & Teodoro Georgiadis & Mathew Herrnegger & Adrian Piticar & David R. Legates, 2020. "Observed and Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Environment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-25, June.
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    1. Alessandro Camerotto & Andrea Sartorio & Anna Mazzetto & Milena Gusella & Ornella Luppi & Domenica Lucianò & Olga Sofritti & Cristiano Pelati & Emilia Munno & Andrea Tessari & Simone Bedendo & Margher, 2020. "Early Phase Management of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in the Geographic Area of the Veneto Region, in One of the World’s Oldest Populations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-17, December.

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