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The Evolution of Covid-19 in Italy after the Spring of 2020: An Unpredicted Summer Respite Followed by a Second Wave

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe De Natale

    (INGV, Osservatorio Vesuviano, 80124 Naples, Italy
    CNR-INO, 80078 Pozzuoli, Italy)

  • Lorenzo De Natale

    (Medical School, Università Degli Studi di Napoli “Federico II”, 80131 Naples, Italy)

  • Claudia Troise

    (INGV, Osservatorio Vesuviano, 80124 Naples, Italy
    CNR-INO, 80078 Pozzuoli, Italy)

  • Vito Marchitelli

    (Department of Mobility, Public Works, Ecology, Environment, Puglia Region Government, 70100 Bari, Italy)

  • Antonio Coviello

    (CNR-IRISS, 80134 Naples, Italy)

  • Karen G. Holmberg

    (Gallatin School of Individualized Study, New York University, New York, NY 10003, USA)

  • Renato Somma

    (INGV, Osservatorio Vesuviano, 80124 Naples, Italy
    CNR-IRISS, 80134 Naples, Italy)

Abstract

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic was particularly invasive in Italy during the period between March and late April 2020, then decreased in both the number of infections and in the seriousness of the illness throughout the summer of 2020. In this work, we measure the severity of the disease by the ratio of Intensive Care Units (ICU) spaces occupied by COVID-19 patients and the number of Active Cases (AC) each month from April to October 2020. We also use the ratio of the number of Deaths (D) to the number of Active Cases. What clearly emerges, from rigorous statistical analysis, is a progressive decrease in both ratios until August, indicating progressive mitigation of the disease. This is particularly evident when comparing March–April with July–August; during the summer period the two ratios became roughly 18 times lower. We test such sharp decreases against possible bias in counting active cases and we confirm their statistical significance. We then interpret such evidence in terms of the well-known seasonality of the human immune system and the virus-inactivating effect of stronger UV rays in the summer. Both ratios, however, increased again in October, as ICU/AC began to increase in September 2020. These ratios and the exponential growth of infections in October indicate that the virus—if not contained by strict measures—will lead to unsustainable challenges for the Italian health system in the winter of 2020–2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe De Natale & Lorenzo De Natale & Claudia Troise & Vito Marchitelli & Antonio Coviello & Karen G. Holmberg & Renato Somma, 2020. "The Evolution of Covid-19 in Italy after the Spring of 2020: An Unpredicted Summer Respite Followed by a Second Wave," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-12, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:23:p:8708-:d:449952
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicola Scafetta, 2020. "Distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Its Monthly Forecast Based on Seasonal Climate Patterns," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-34, May.
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