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Modeling R 0 for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local Infectious Zones

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  • Jason K. Blackburn

    (Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, 3141 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
    Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Holly H. Ganz

    (Davis Genome Center, University of California, 451 Health Sciences Dr., Davis, CA 95616, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • José Miguel Ponciano

    (Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA)

  • Wendy C. Turner

    (Department of Biological Sciences, State University of New York, 1400 Washington Avenue, Albany, NY 12222, USA)

  • Sadie J. Ryan

    (Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
    Quantitative Disease Ecology & Conservation Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, 3141 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
    School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa)

  • Pauline Kamath

    (School of Food and Agriculture, University of Maine, 5763 Rogers Hall, Room 210, Orono, ME 04469, USA)

  • Carrie Cizauskas

    (Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)

  • Kyrre Kausrud

    (Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0361 Oslo, Norway
    Current address: Norwegian Veterinary Institute, 0454 Oslo, Norway.)

  • Robert D. Holt

    (Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA)

  • Nils Chr. Stenseth

    (Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0361 Oslo, Norway)

  • Wayne M. Getz

    (School of Food and Agriculture, University of Maine, 5763 Rogers Hall, Room 210, Orono, ME 04469, USA
    School of Mathematical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

How a disease is transmitted affects our ability to determine R 0 , the average number of new cases caused by an infectious host at the onset of an epidemic. R 0 becomes progressively more difficult to compute as transmission varies from directly transmitted diseases to diseases that are vector-borne to environmentally transmitted diseases. Pathogens responsible for diseases with environmental transmission are typically maintained in environmental reservoirs that exhibit a complex spatial distribution of local infectious zones (LIZs). Understanding host encounters with LIZs and pathogen persistence within LIZs is required for an accurate R 0 and modeling these contacts requires an integrated geospatial and dynamical systems approach. Here we review how interactions between host and pathogen populations and environmental reservoirs are driven by landscape-level variables, and synthesize the quantitative framework needed to formulate outbreak response and disease control.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason K. Blackburn & Holly H. Ganz & José Miguel Ponciano & Wendy C. Turner & Sadie J. Ryan & Pauline Kamath & Carrie Cizauskas & Kyrre Kausrud & Robert D. Holt & Nils Chr. Stenseth & Wayne M. Getz, 2019. "Modeling R 0 for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local Infectious Zones," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:6:p:954-:d:214681
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bhadra, Anindya & Ionides, Edward L. & Laneri, Karina & Pascual, Mercedes & Bouma, Menno & Dhiman, Ramesh C., 2011. "Malaria in Northwest India: Data Analysis via Partially Observed Stochastic Differential Equation Models Driven by Lévy Noise," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 440-451.
    2. Jason K. Blackburn & Ted L. Hadfield & Andrew J. Curtis & Martin E. Hugh-Jones, 2014. "Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Anthrax in White-Tailed Deer, Odocoileus virginianus, and Hematophagous Flies in West Texas during the Summertime Anthrax Risk Period," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 104(5), pages 939-958, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael H. Norris & Jason K. Blackburn, 2019. "Linking Geospatial and Laboratory Sciences to Define Mechanisms behind Landscape Level Drivers of Anthrax Outbreaks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Chen, Fangyuan, 2023. "Zoonotic modeling for emerging avian influenza with antigenic variation and (M+1)–patch spatial human movements," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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