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Trends in AIDS Incidence in Individuals Aged 50 Years or Older in the City of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1982–2011: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Paulo Cavalcante Apratto Junior

    (Pos-Graduate Program in Medical Sciences, Rio de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro 20550-170, Brazil)

  • Mônica Bastos De Lima Barros

    (National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil)

  • Regina Paiva Daumas

    (National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil)

  • Mônica Kramer De Noronha Andrade

    (National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil
    Centre for Studies and Research on Ageing, Vital Brazil Institute, Rio de Janeiro 22451-000, Brazil)

  • Denise Leite Maia Monteiro

    (School of Medical Sciences, Rio de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro 20550-170, Brazil)

  • Beatriz Rodrigues Lopes Vincent

    (National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil
    School of Medical Sciences, Rio de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro 20550-170, Brazil)

  • Valéria Teresa Saraiva Lino

    (National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil)

  • Nádia Cristina Pinheiro Rodrigues

    (National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil
    School of Medical Sciences, Rio de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro 20550-170, Brazil)

Abstract

Objective : The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of three temporal components of AIDS incidence ( i.e. , age, period and cohort) on individuals aged 50 or older living in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Methods : Age-specific incidence rates were calculated from 1982–2011. Negative binomial and Poisson models were used to analyze the risk of AIDS by age, period and cohort . Results : The risk of AIDS in men was 2.45 times higher than in women, regardless of age and period ( p -value < 0.001). The incidence of AIDS in individuals older than 69 years was 7-fold lower than in those aged 50–59 years ( p -value < 0.001). A decreasing trend in AIDS risk was observed from the youngest cohort (≥1940) to the oldest (1910–1919). From 1982 to 2006, we could detect an increasing trend in AIDS risk in the population aged 50 years or older. A peak in rates was detected in the period from 2002–2006. The incidence rates in 2002–2006 were six times higher than those in 1987–1991 ( p -value < 0.001), independent of age and sex ( p -value < 0.001). Conclusions : An increase of AIDS risk in older people was detected. This group should not be neglected by public health programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Cavalcante Apratto Junior & Mônica Bastos De Lima Barros & Regina Paiva Daumas & Mônica Kramer De Noronha Andrade & Denise Leite Maia Monteiro & Beatriz Rodrigues Lopes Vincent & Valéria Teresa , 2014. "Trends in AIDS Incidence in Individuals Aged 50 Years or Older in the City of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1982–2011: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:8:p:7608-7621:d:38636
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Castilla, J. & Pollán, M. & López-Abente, G., 1997. "The AIDS epidemic among spanish drug users: A birth cohort-associated phenomenon," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(5), pages 770-774.
    2. Yu-Kang Tu & George Davey Smith & Mark S Gilthorpe, 2011. "A New Approach to Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Using Partial Least Squares Regression: The Trend in Blood Pressure in the Glasgow Alumni Cohort," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(4), pages 1-9, April.
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