Performance Evaluation Model of Overhead Transmission Line Anti-Icing Strategies Considering Time Evolution

Icing disasters can significantly reduce the reliability of overhead transmission lines, while limited budgets of power grid enterprises constrain the scale of investment. To improve investment efficiency, it is essential to balance the reliability and economic performance of anti-icing strategies. Most existing studies on the performance evaluation of anti-icing strategies for transmission lines focus primarily on reliability, neglecting their economic implications. To address this gap, this paper proposes a time-evolution-based performance evaluation model for overhead transmission line anti-icing strategies. First, a lifetime distribution function of transmission lines during the icing period is constructed based on the Nelson–Aalen method and metal deformation theory. Subsequently, a quantitative risk model for iced transmission lines is developed, incorporating the failure rate, value of lost load, and amount of lost load, providing a monetary-based indicator for icing risk. Finally, a performance evaluation method for anti-icing strategies is developed based on the risk quantification model. Implementation cost is treated as risk control expenditure, and strategy performance is assessed by integrating it with residual risk cost to identify the optimal strategy through composite cost analysis. The proposed model enables a comprehensive assessment of anti-icing strategy performance, improving the accuracy of strategy selection and achieving a dynamic balance between implementation cost and transmission line reliability. The case study results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively reduces the risk of failure in overhead transmission lines under ice disasters while lowering anti-icing costs. Compared with two existing strategy selection approaches, the strategy based on this method achieved 46.11% and 32.56% lower composite cost, and 60.26% and 48.41% lower residual risk cost, respectively.