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Energy Use Forecasting with the Use of a Nested Structure Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Artificial Neural Networks

Author

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  • Katarzyna Poczeta

    (Department of Applied Computer Science, Kielce University of Technology, 25314 Kielce, Poland)

  • Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou

    (Department of Energy Systems, Faculty of Technology, University of Thessaly, Geopolis, 41500 Larisa, Greece)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach to energy use forecasting. We propose a nested fuzzy cognitive map in which each concept at a higher level can be decomposed into another fuzzy cognitive map, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network or long short-term memory network. Historical data related to energy consumption are used to construct a nested fuzzy cognitive map in order to better understand energy use behavior. Through the experiments, the usefulness of the nested structure in energy demand prediction is demonstrated, by calculating three popular metrics: Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and the correlation coefficient. A comparative analysis is performed, applying classic multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks, long short-term memory networks and fuzzy cognitive maps. The results confirmed that the proposed approach outperforms the classic methods in terms of prediction accuracy. Moreover, the advantage of the proposed approach is the ability to present complex time series in the form of a clear nested structure presenting the main concepts influencing energy consumption on the first level. The second level allows for more detailed problem analysis and lower forecast errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Poczeta & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou, 2022. "Energy Use Forecasting with the Use of a Nested Structure Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:20:p:7542-:d:940998
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katarzyna Poczeta & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou & Vassilis C. Gerogiannis, 2020. "Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Optimization for Decision Making and Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Warut Pannakkong & Thanyaporn Harncharnchai & Jirachai Buddhakulsomsiri, 2022. "Forecasting Daily Electricity Consumption in Thailand Using Regression, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Hybrid Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Mohammed Jamii & Mohamed Maaroufi, 2021. "The Forecasting of Electrical Energy Consumption in Morocco with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-9, June.
    4. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    5. Ioannis Patsakos & Eleni Vrochidou & George A. Papakostas & Song Jiang, 2022. "A Survey on Deep Learning for Building Load Forecasting," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-25, June.
    6. Zhang, Liang & Wen, Jin & Li, Yanfei & Chen, Jianli & Ye, Yunyang & Fu, Yangyang & Livingood, William, 2021. "A review of machine learning in building load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Elias Roumpakias & Tassos Stamatelos, 2023. "Comparative Performance Analysis of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Plant in Central Greece after Several Years of Operation Using Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.

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