IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i13p4626-d846797.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of Hourly Air-Conditioning Energy Consumption in Office Buildings Based on Gaussian Process Regression

Author

Listed:
  • Yayuan Feng

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Youxian Huang

    (Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK)

  • Haifeng Shang

    (Ningbo Construction Data and Archives Management Center, Ningbo 315040, China)

  • Junwei Lou

    (Ningbo Construction Data and Archives Management Center, Ningbo 315040, China)

  • Ala deen Knefaty

    (Ningbo Aishi Architectural Design Co., Ltd., No. 58, Qizha Street, Haishu District, Ningbo 215171, China)

  • Jian Yao

    (Department of Architecture, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Rongyue Zheng

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

Abstract

Accurate prediction of air-conditioning energy consumption in buildings is of great help in reducing building energy consumption. Nowadays, most research efforts on predictive models are based on large samples, while short-term prediction with one-month or less-than-one-month training sets receives less attention due to data uncertainty and unavailability for application in practice. This paper takes a government office building in Ningbo as a case study. The hourly HVAC system energy consumption is obtained through the Ningbo Building Energy Consumption Monitoring Platform, and the meteorological data are obtained from the meteorological station of Ningbo city. This study utilizes a Gaussian process regression with the help of a 12 × 12 grid search and prediction processing to predict short-term hourly building HVAC system energy consumption by using meteorological variables and short-term building HVAC energy consumption data. The accuracy R 2 of the optimal Gaussian process regression model obtained is 0.9917 and 0.9863, and the CV-RMSE is 0.1035 and 0.1278, respectively, for model testing and short-term HVAC system energy consumption prediction. For short-term HVAC system energy consumption, the NMBE is 0.0575, which is more accurate than the standard of ASHRAE, indicating that it can be applied in practical energy predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yayuan Feng & Youxian Huang & Haifeng Shang & Junwei Lou & Ala deen Knefaty & Jian Yao & Rongyue Zheng, 2022. "Prediction of Hourly Air-Conditioning Energy Consumption in Office Buildings Based on Gaussian Process Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:13:p:4626-:d:846797
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/13/4626/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/13/4626/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tso, Geoffrey K.F. & Yau, Kelvin K.W., 2007. "Predicting electricity energy consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, decision tree and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1761-1768.
    2. Khamma, Thulasi Ram & Zhang, Yuming & Guerrier, Stéphane & Boubekri, Mohamed, 2020. "Generalized additive models: An efficient method for short-term energy prediction in office buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Feng, Yayuan & Yao, Jian & Li, Zhonghao & Zheng, Rongyue, 2022. "Uncertainty prediction of energy consumption in buildings under stochastic shading adjustment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    4. Zhao, Yang & Li, Tingting & Zhang, Xuejun & Zhang, Chaobo, 2019. "Artificial intelligence-based fault detection and diagnosis methods for building energy systems: Advantages, challenges and the future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 85-101.
    5. Lu, Hongfang & Cheng, Feifei & Ma, Xin & Hu, Gang, 2020. "Short-term prediction of building energy consumption employing an improved extreme gradient boosting model: A case study of an intake tower," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Carpenter, Joseph & Woodbury, Keith A. & O'Neill, Zheng, 2018. "Using change-point and Gaussian process models to create baseline energy models in industrial facilities: A comparison," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 415-425.
    7. Biswas, M.A. Rafe & Robinson, Melvin D. & Fumo, Nelson, 2016. "Prediction of residential building energy consumption: A neural network approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 84-92.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    2. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Kwok Wai Mui & Ling Tim Wong & Manoj Kumar Satheesan & Anjana Balachandran, 2021. "A Hybrid Simulation Model to Predict the Cooling Energy Consumption for Residential Housing in Hong Kong," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Fan, Cheng & Lei, Yutian & Sun, Yongjun & Piscitelli, Marco Savino & Chiosa, Roberto & Capozzoli, Alfonso, 2022. "Data-centric or algorithm-centric: Exploiting the performance of transfer learning for improving building energy predictions in data-scarce context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    5. Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Iman Larki & Rahim Zahedi & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Energy Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-49, April.
    6. Liu, Jiangyan & Zhang, Qing & Dong, Zhenxiang & Li, Xin & Li, Guannan & Xie, Yi & Li, Kuining, 2021. "Quantitative evaluation of the building energy performance based on short-term energy predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Dorian Skrobek & Jaroslaw Krzywanski & Marcin Sosnowski & Ghulam Moeen Uddin & Waqar Muhammad Ashraf & Karolina Grabowska & Anna Zylka & Anna Kulakowska & Wojciech Nowak, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence for Energy Processes and Systems: Applications and Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-12, April.
    8. Chengdong Li & Zixiang Ding & Dongbin Zhao & Jianqiang Yi & Guiqing Zhang, 2017. "Building Energy Consumption Prediction: An Extreme Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Pan, Yue & Zhang, Limao, 2020. "Data-driven estimation of building energy consumption with multi-source heterogeneous data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    10. Shen, Meng & Lu, Yujie & Wei, Kua Harn & Cui, Qingbin, 2020. "Prediction of household electricity consumption and effectiveness of concerted intervention strategies based on occupant behaviour and personality traits," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Chen, Zhelun & O’Neill, Zheng & Wen, Jin & Pradhan, Ojas & Yang, Tao & Lu, Xing & Lin, Guanjing & Miyata, Shohei & Lee, Seungjae & Shen, Chou & Chiosa, Roberto & Piscitelli, Marco Savino & Capozzoli, , 2023. "A review of data-driven fault detection and diagnostics for building HVAC systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    12. Nutkiewicz, Alex & Yang, Zheng & Jain, Rishee K., 2018. "Data-driven Urban Energy Simulation (DUE-S): A framework for integrating engineering simulation and machine learning methods in a multi-scale urban energy modeling workflow," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1176-1189.
    13. Sun, Hongchang & Niu, Yanlei & Li, Chengdong & Zhou, Changgeng & Zhai, Wenwen & Chen, Zhe & Wu, Hao & Niu, Lanqiang, 2022. "Energy consumption optimization of building air conditioning system via combining the parallel temporal convolutional neural network and adaptive opposition-learning chimp algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    14. Luo, X.J. & Oyedele, Lukumon O. & Ajayi, Anuoluwapo O. & Akinade, Olugbenga O. & Owolabi, Hakeem A. & Ahmed, Ashraf, 2020. "Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Antonio Rosato & Francesco Guarino & Mohammad El Youssef & Alfonso Capozzoli & Massimiliano Masullo & Luigi Maffei, 2022. "Faulty Operation of Coils’ and Humidifier Valves in a Typical Air-Handling Unit: Experimental Impact Assessment of Indoor Comfort and Patterns of Operating Parameters under Mediterranean Climatic Cond," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-38, September.
    16. Shariq, M. Hasan & Hughes, Ben Richard, 2020. "Revolutionising building inspection techniques to meet large-scale energy demands: A review of the state-of-the-art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Liukkonen, M. & Heikkinen, M. & Hiltunen, T. & Hälikkä, E. & Kuivalainen, R. & Hiltunen, Y., 2011. "Artificial neural networks for analysis of process states in fluidized bed combustion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 339-347.
    18. Movagharnejad, Kamyar & Mehdizadeh, Bahman & Banihashemi, Morteza & Kordkheili, Masoud Sheikhi, 2011. "Forecasting the differences between various commercial oil prices in the Persian Gulf region by neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 3979-3984.
    19. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    20. Ibrahim, Muhammad Sohail & Dong, Wei & Yang, Qiang, 2020. "Machine learning driven smart electric power systems: Current trends and new perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:13:p:4626-:d:846797. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.