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Machine Learning-Based Short-Term Prediction of Air-Conditioning Load through Smart Meter Analytics

Author

Listed:
  • Manoj Manivannan

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano 20156, Italy)

  • Behzad Najafi

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano 20156, Italy)

  • Fabio Rinaldi

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano 20156, Italy)

Abstract

The present paper is focused on short-term prediction of air-conditioning (AC) load of residential buildings using the data obtained from a conventional smart meter. The AC load, at each time step, is separated from smart meter’s aggregate consumption through energy disaggregation methodology. The obtained air-conditioning load and the corresponding historical weather data are then employed as input features for the prediction procedure. In the prediction step, different machine learning algorithms, including Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Random Forests, are used in order to conduct hour-ahead and day-ahead predictions. The predictions obtained using Random Forests have been demonstrated to be the most accurate ones leading to hour-ahead and day-ahead prediction with R 2 scores of 87.3% and 83.2%, respectively. The main advantage of the present methodology is separating the AC consumption from the consumptions of other residential appliances, which can then be predicted employing short-term weather forecasts. The other devices’ consumptions are largely dependent upon the occupant’s behaviour and are thus more difficult to predict. Therefore, the harsh alterations in the consumption of AC equipment, due to variations in the weather conditions, can be predicted with a higher accuracy; which in turn enhances the overall load prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Manoj Manivannan & Behzad Najafi & Fabio Rinaldi, 2017. "Machine Learning-Based Short-Term Prediction of Air-Conditioning Load through Smart Meter Analytics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1905-:d:119527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Zhao, Yang, 2017. "A short-term building cooling load prediction method using deep learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 222-233.
    2. Jain, Rishee K. & Smith, Kevin M. & Culligan, Patricia J. & Taylor, John E., 2014. "Forecasting energy consumption of multi-family residential buildings using support vector regression: Investigating the impact of temporal and spatial monitoring granularity on performance accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 168-178.
    3. Kontokosta, Constantine E. & Tull, Christopher, 2017. "A data-driven predictive model of city-scale energy use in buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 303-317.
    4. Chen, Yibo & Tan, Hongwei, 2017. "Short-term prediction of electric demand in building sector via hybrid support vector regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1363-1374.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasan Rafiq & Xiaohan Shi & Hengxu Zhang & Huimin Li & Manesh Kumar Ochani, 2020. "A Deep Recurrent Neural Network for Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring Based on Multi-Feature Input Space and Post-Processing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Farzad Dadras Javan & Italo Aldo Campodonico Avendano & Behzad Najafi & Amin Moazami & Fabio Rinaldi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Prediction of HVAC-Driven Load Flexibility in Warehouses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Samy Faddel & Guanyu Tian & Qun Zhou, 2021. "Decentralized Management of Commercial HVAC Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Mohamed S. Abdalzaher & Mostafa M. Fouda & Mohamed I. Ibrahem, 2022. "Data Privacy Preservation and Security in Smart Metering Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, October.
    5. Behzad Najafi & Paolo Bonomi & Andrea Casalegno & Fabio Rinaldi & Andrea Baricci, 2020. "Rapid Fault Diagnosis of PEM Fuel Cells through Optimal Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy Tests," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.

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