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Modeling Hospital Resource Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Experimental Validation

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  • J. M. Calabuig

    (Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada, IUMPA-UPV, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera, s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • E. Jiménez-Fernández

    (Departamento de Teoría e Historía Económica, Universidad de Granada, Campus Cartuja, s/n, 18071 Granada, Spain)

  • E. A. Sánchez-Pérez

    (Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada, IUMPA-UPV, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera, s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • S. Manzanares

    (Dirección Médica, Hospital Virgen de las Nieves, Av. de las Fuerzas Armadas, 2, 18014 Granada, Spain)

Abstract

One of the main challenges posed by the healthcare crisis generated by COVID-19 is to avoid hospital collapse. The occupation of hospital beds by patients diagnosed by COVID-19 implies the diversion or suspension of their use for other specialities. Therefore, it is useful to have information that allows efficient management of future hospital occupancy. This article presents a robust and simple model to show certain characteristics of the evolution of the dynamic process of bed occupancy by patients with COVID-19 in a hospital by means of an adaptation of Kaplan-Meier survival curves. To check this model, the evolution of the COVID-19 hospitalization process of two hospitals between 11 March and 15 June 2020 is analyzed. The information provided by the Kaplan-Meier curves allows forecasts of hospital occupancy in subsequent periods. The results shows an average deviation of 2.45 patients between predictions and actual occupancy in the period analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • J. M. Calabuig & E. Jiménez-Fernández & E. A. Sánchez-Pérez & S. Manzanares, 2021. "Modeling Hospital Resource Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Experimental Validation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:9:y:2021:i:4:p:38-:d:655735
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael R. Johnson & Hiten Naik & Wei Siang Chan & Jesse Greiner & Matt Michaleski & Dong Liu & Bruno Silvestre & Ian P. McCarthy, 2023. "Forecasting ward-level bed requirements to aid pandemic resource planning: Lessons learned and future directions," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 477-500, September.
    2. Costase Ndayishimiye & Christoph Sowada & Patrycja Dyjach & Agnieszka Stasiak & John Middleton & Henrique Lopes & Katarzyna Dubas-Jakóbczyk, 2022. "Associations between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hospital Infrastructure Adaptation and Planning—A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Chiara Barchielli & Milena Vainieri & Chiara Seghieri & Eleonora Salutini & Paolo Zoppi, 2023. "The Function of Bed Management in Pandemic Times—A Case Study of Reaction Time and Bed Reconversion," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(12), pages 1-8, June.

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