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Crude Oil Market And Geopolitical Events: An Analysis Based On Information-Theory-Based Quantifiers

Author

Listed:
  • Aurelio F. Bariviera

    (Department of Business Management, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain)

  • Luciano Zunino

    (Centro de Investigaciones Ópticas (CONICET La Plata-CIC), Argentina
    Departamento de Ciencias Básicas, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional de la Plata, Argentina.)

  • Osvaldo A. Rosso

    (Instituto de Física, Universidad Federal de Alagoas, Brazil
    Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires (ITBA), Argentina
    Complex Systems Group, Universidad de los Andes, Chile)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of oil market during the last three decades, and examines changes in informational efficiency with major geopolitical events, such as terrorist attacks, financial crisis and other important events. The series under study is the daily prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in USD/BBL, commonly used as a benchmark in oil pricing. The analysis is performed using information-theory-derived quantifiers, namely permutation entropy and permutation statistical complexity. These metrics allow capturing the hidden structure in the market dynamics, and allow discriminating different degrees of informational efficiency. We find that some geopolitical events impact on the underlying dynamical structure of the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurelio F. Bariviera & Luciano Zunino & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2016. "Crude Oil Market And Geopolitical Events: An Analysis Based On Information-Theory-Based Quantifiers," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 21(1), pages 41-51, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:fzy:fuzeco:v:21:y:2016:i:1:p:41-51
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aurelio F. Bariviera & M. Belen Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2016. "Libor at crossroads: stochastic switching detection using information theory quantifiers," Papers 1603.02874, arXiv.org.
    2. Aurelio F. Bariviera & M. Belen Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "A permutation Information Theory tour through different interest rate maturities: the Libor case," Papers 1509.00217, arXiv.org.
    3. Brahmasrene, Tantatape & Huang, Jui-Chi & Sissoko, Yaya, 2014. "Crude oil prices and exchange rates: Causality, variance decomposition and impulse response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 407-412.
    4. Bariviera, Aurelio Fernández, 2011. "The influence of liquidity on informational efficiency: The case of the Thai Stock Market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4426-4432.
    5. Sun, Jingwei & Shi, Wendong, 2015. "Breaks, trends, and unit roots in spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-177.
    6. Wiston Adrian Risso, 2009. "The informational efficiency: the emerging markets versus the developed markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 485-487.
    7. An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & Ding, Yinghui & Zhong, Weiqiong, 2014. "Research on patterns in the fluctuation of the co-movement between crude oil futures and spot prices: A complex network approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1067-1075.
    8. Philippatos, George C & Wilson, Charles J, 1974. "Information theory and risk in capital markets," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 523-532, August.
    9. Rosso, Osvaldo A. & De Micco, Luciana & Plastino, A. & Larrondo, Hilda A., 2010. "Info-quantifiers’ map-characterization revisited," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4604-4612.
    10. Myles M. Dryden, 1968. "Short-Term Forecasting Of Share Prices: An Information Theory Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 15(1), pages 227-249, February.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. Zunino, Luciano & Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2012. "On the efficiency of sovereign bond markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4342-4349.
    13. Zunino, Luciano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Serinaldi, Francesco & Zanin, Massimiliano & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2011. "Commodity predictability analysis with a permutation information theory approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 876-890.
    14. Lamberti, P.W & Martin, M.T & Plastino, A & Rosso, O.A, 2004. "Intensive entropic non-triviality measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 334(1), pages 119-131.
    15. Bariviera, A.F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B., 2012. "A comparative analysis of the informational efficiency of the fixed income market in seven European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 426-428.
    16. De Micco, L. & González, C.M. & Larrondo, H.A. & Martin, M.T. & Plastino, A. & Rosso, O.A., 2008. "Randomizing nonlinear maps via symbolic dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3373-3383.
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    Cited by:

    1. Parker, Edgar, 2017. "The Entropic Linkage between Equity and Bond Market Dynamics," MPRA Paper 80036, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econophysics; permutation entropy; permutation statistical complexity; WTI; informational efficiency; geopolitical events;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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