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The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement

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Abstract

The acceleration of labor productivity growth that began during the mid-1990s is the defining economic event of the past decade. A consensus has arisen among economists that the acceleration was caused by technological innovations that decreased the quality-adjusted prices of semiconductors and related information and communications technology (ICT) products, including digital computers. In sharp contrast to the previous 20 years, services-producing sectors-heavy users of ICT products-led the productivity increase, besting even a robust manufacturing sector. In this article, the authors survey the performance of the services-producing and goods-producing sectors and examine revisions to aggregate labor productivity data of the type commonly discussed by policymakers. The revisions, at times, were large enough to reverse preliminary conclusions regarding productivity growth slowdowns and accelerations. The unanticipated acceleration in the services sector and the large size of revisions to aggregate data combine to shed light on why economists were slow to recognize the productivity acceleration.

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  • Richard G. Anderson & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(May), pages 181-202.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2006:i:may:p:181-202:n:v.88no.3
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard G. Anderson & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2010. "FOMC learning and productivity growth (1985-2003): a reading of the record," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Mar), pages 129-154.
    2. Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Simon van Norden, 2010. "Lessons from the latest data on U.S. productivity," Working Papers 11-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. René Cabral & André Varella Mollick & Eduardo Saucedo, 2016. "Violence in Mexico and its effects on labor productivity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(2), pages 317-339, March.
    4. Elliott, Graham & Müller, Ulrich K., 2014. "Pre and post break parameter inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 141-157.
    5. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2018. "Is American manufacturing in decline?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 107-123, July.
    6. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    7. Hilda Kahne & Zachary Mabel, 2010. "Single Mothers and Other Low Earners: Policy Routes to Adequate Wages," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3), pages 113-149, August.
    8. Antonio Paradiso, 2023. "A reconstruction of the time series of global technology from 5500 BC to the 2000s," Working Papers 2023:12, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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    Keywords

    Labor productivity;

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