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The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy

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  • Mary C. Daly

Abstract

AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations take time. We need to look for early indicators in the data and in business to get monetary policy right. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and San Jose State University in San Jose, California, on February 17.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary C. Daly, 2026. "The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(06), pages 1-8, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:102797
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu, 2025. "The simple macroeconomics of AI," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 13-58.
    2. Devine, Warren D., 1983. "From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 347-372, June.
    3. Richard B. Du Boff, 1967. "The Introduction of Electric Power in American Manufacturing," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 20(3), pages 509-518, December.
    4. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & David Deming, 2025. "The State of Generative AI Adoption in 2025," On the Economy 102131, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamza Abdelrahman & Andrew Foerster, 2026. "Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(14), pages 1-5, May.

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