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Tracking Labor Market Stress

Author

Listed:
  • Rohit Garimella
  • Òscar Jordà
  • Sanjay R. Singh

Abstract

State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor markets usually signals the start of a recession. In mid-2024, some widely followed indicators of recession risk flashed red. However, analysis of state-level data indicates that labor market declines were not as widespread as they had been in previous recessions. Applying this analysis to the latest data suggests that the labor market has remained stable through mid-2025.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohit Garimella & Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "Tracking Labor Market Stress," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(19), pages 1-6, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:101429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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