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A spatial-temporal analysis of civil war: The case of Nepal

Author

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  • Shikha Silwal

    (Washington and Lee University, Lexington, VA, USA)

Abstract

The study models the spread of Nepal’s civil war across geography and over time. The potential effects of poverty, geography, caste, and prewar election outcomes on the spread and intensity of war-violence is examined, using data from the 1996 to 2006 Nepalese-Maoist civil war. Results suggest, first, that proximity to war-affected area is the key determinant of whether or not war spreads to another area and, second, that the intensity of violence increases as time elapses. Once proximity to areas already affected by war is accounted for, socioeconomic conditions related to poverty and geography are statistically insignificant in explaining either the spread of war or its escalation in intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Shikha Silwal, 2013. "A spatial-temporal analysis of civil war: The case of Nepal," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 20-25, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:epc:journl:v:8:y:2013:i:2:p:20-25
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    File URL: http://www.epsjournal.org.uk/index.php/EPSJ/article/view/149
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Swee, Eik Leong & Zhan, Haikun & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "Do perceptions of economic well-being predict the onset of war and peace?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Silwal, Shikha, 2016. "Resilience amidst conflict? The effect of civil war exposure on secondary education," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 97-120.
    3. Kumar, Dushyant & Roy Chowdhury, Prabal, 2022. "Winning hearts and minds in conflict-ridden areas: Development as a signal of benevolence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil war; nepal; spatial;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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