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Elasticidad ingreso de los impuestos federales en México. Efectos en la recaudación federal participable


  • Cárdenas, Óscar

    (Escuela de Economía, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

    (Escuela de Economía, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Gómez, Manuel

    (Escuela de Economía, Universidad de Guanajuato)


We estimate the long-run income elasticity of three Mexican federal taxes (income tax, value added tax and specific taxes on output and services), and that of the total tax revenue in Mexico, with the purpose of indirectly compute the income elasticity of the federal transfers to subnational governments. The results show that: 1) there is a long-run equilibrium relationship (co integrated) between the output and each tax, 2) our tax system neither translates efficiently economic growth into additional revenue for subnational governments, nor allows for a substantial fall in revenues when the economy slows down. In contrast with some Latin-American countries, such as, Colombia, Guatemala, and Bolivia, the income elasticity of the value added tax in Mexico is relatively low.// Estimamos la elasticidad ingreso de largo plazo del impuesto sobre la renta, al valor agregado, los especiales sobre producción y servicios, así como de los ingresos tributariosen México, con el fin de inferir indirectamente la elasticidad del recurso federal participable con respecto al producto interno bruto. Los resultados muestran que: i) existe una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo (de cointegración) entre la produccion y cada uno de los impuestos, ii) nuestro sistema tributario no es efectivo para traducir el crecimiento económico en más recursos para los gobiernos subnacionales; sin embargo, tampoco permite que las transferencias a estados y municipios desciendan más que proporcionalmente cuando la economía desacelera. Una comparación con otros países latinoamericanos, como Colombia, Guatemala y Bolivia, muestra que la elasticidad ingreso del impuesto al valor agregado en México es relativamente baja.

Suggested Citation

  • Cárdenas, Óscar & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Gómez, Manuel, 2008. "Elasticidad ingreso de los impuestos federales en México. Efectos en la recaudación federal participable," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(298), pages 519-531, abril-jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:75:y:2008:i:298:p:519-531

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    Cited by:

    1. Absalón, Carlos & Urzúa, Carlos M., 2012. "Distributive effects of the 2010 tax reform in Mexico: A microsimulation analysis," EGAP Chapters, in: Urzúa, Carlos M. (ed.), Fiscal Inclusive Development: Microsimulation Models for Latin America, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México.
    2. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-138.
    3. Felipe J. Fonseca & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2011. "Revenue Elasticity of the Main federal Taxes in Mexico," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 48(1), pages 89-111.

    More about this item


    cointegración; modelo de corrección de errores; recaudación federal participable; rompimientos estructurales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism


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