IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Outliers and the Halloween Effect: Comment on Maberly and Pierce


  • H. Douglas Witte


Maberly and Pierce (2004) re-examine the work of Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) that documents significantly lower monthly stock market returns over the period May to October than over the period November to April. The finding has been called the Halloween effect and is present to varying degrees in most equity markets worldwide. Maberly and Pierce focus on the Halloween effect in the United States and contend it is driven by two negative-return outliers. We argue that controlling for two outliers is somewhat arbitrary. We apply robust regression methods—including all the data but limiting the influence of extreme returns—to the estimation of the Halloween effect in the United States. Contrary to the Maberly and Pierce findings, our results indicate statistical significance of a Halloween effect in the U.S. at levels similar to those originally reported in Bouman and Jacobsen.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Douglas Witte, 2010. "Outliers and the Halloween Effect: Comment on Maberly and Pierce," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 91-98, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:91-98

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
    2. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    3. Edwin D. Maberly & Raylene M. Pierce, 2004. "Stock Market Efficiency Withstands Another Challenge: Solving the "Sell in May/Buy after Halloween" Puzzle," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 1(1), pages 29-46, April.
    4. Lucey, Brian M & Zhao, Shelly, 2008. "Halloween or January? Yet another puzzle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1055-1069, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2015. "Sell in May and Go Away: Still good advice for investors?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
    2. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "The Halloween Effect Evidence from Romania," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(7), pages 463-471, July.
    3. Carrazedo, Tiago & Curto, José Dias & Oliveira, Luís, 2016. "The Halloween effect in European sectors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 489-500.

    More about this item


    Halloween effect; outliers; influence vector; robust regression;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:91-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jason Briggeman). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.