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Efficient calibration techniques for large-scale traffic simulators

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  • Zhang, Chao
  • Osorio, Carolina
  • Flötteröd, Gunnar

Abstract

Road transportation simulators are increasingly used by transportation stakeholders around the world for the analysis of intricate transportation systems. Model calibration is a crucial prerequisite for transportation simulators to reliably reproduce and predict traffic conditions. This paper considers the calibration of transportation simulators. The methodology is suitable for a broad family of simulators. Its use is illustrated with stochastic and computationally costly simulators. The calibration problem is formulated as a simulation-based optimization (SO) problem. We propose a metamodel approach. The analytical metamodel combines information from the simulator with information from an analytical differentiable and tractable network model that relates the calibration parameters to the simulation-based objective function. The proposed algorithm is validated by considering synthetic experiments on a toy network. It is then used to address a calibration problem with real data for a large-scale network: the Berlin metropolitan network with over 24300 links and 11300 nodes. The performance of the proposed approach is compared to a traditional benchmark method. The proposed approach significantly improves the computational efficiency of the calibration algorithm with an average reduction in simulation runtime until convergence of more than 80%. The results illustrate the scalability of the approach and its suitability for the calibration of large-scale computationally inefficient network simulators.

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  • Zhang, Chao & Osorio, Carolina & Flötteröd, Gunnar, 2017. "Efficient calibration techniques for large-scale traffic simulators," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 214-239.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:97:y:2017:i:c:p:214-239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2016.12.005
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    Cited by:

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    3. Xiao Chen & Carolina Osorio & Bruno Filipe Santos, 2019. "Simulation-Based Travel Time Reliable Signal Control," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 523-544, March.
    4. Flötteröd, G. & Osorio, C., 2017. "Stochastic network link transmission model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 180-209.
    5. Osorio, Carolina & Punzo, Vincenzo, 2019. "Efficient calibration of microscopic car-following models for large-scale stochastic network simulators," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 156-173.
    6. Osorio, Carolina, 2019. "High-dimensional offline origin-destination (OD) demand calibration for stochastic traffic simulators of large-scale road networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 18-43.
    7. Xiqun (Michael) Chen & Xiang He & Chenfeng Xiong & Zheng Zhu & Lei Zhang, 2019. "A Bayesian Stochastic Kriging Optimization Model Dealing with Heteroscedastic Simulation Noise for Freeway Traffic Management," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 545-565, March.

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