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Port of destination and carrier selection for fruit exports: a multi-dimensional space-time multi-nomial probit model

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  • Garrido, Rodrigo A.
  • Leva, Mabel

Abstract

This papers studies the selection of carrier and destination port for Chilean fruit exporters. This double selection is analyzed as a stochastic choice process with time and space interactions. A space-time error structure was specified within a multi-nomial probit model, considering serial correlation, spatial autocorrelation, and state dependence. The modeling approach was successfully applied to the case of grape exporters from Chile to the USA. The results validated the behavioral hypothesis for this process, i.e. there is significant state dependence, serial and spatial correlation in the choice of carrier and destination port, which should be considered when discrete choice models are used to predict export flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Garrido, Rodrigo A. & Leva, Mabel, 2004. "Port of destination and carrier selection for fruit exports: a multi-dimensional space-time multi-nomial probit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 657-667, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:38:y:2004:i:7:p:657-667
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bunch, David S., 1991. "Estimability in the Multinomial Probit Model," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1gf1t128, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Bolduc, Denis, 1999. "A practical technique to estimate multinomial probit models in transportation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 63-79, February.
    3. Bunch, David S., 1991. "Estimability in the multinomial probit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-12, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mingzhu Yu & Chung-Yee Lee & James Jixian Wang, 2017. "The regional port competition with different terminal competition intensity," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 659-688, December.
    2. Ziegler Andreas, 2010. "Z-Tests in Multinomial Probit Models under Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Small Sample Properties," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(5), pages 630-652, October.
    3. Zhang, Xiunian & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2018. "Shipping mode choice in cold chain from a value-based management perspective," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 147-167.
    4. Feo-Valero, María & Martínez-Moya, Julián, 2022. "Shippers vs. freight forwarders: Do they differ in their port choice decisions? Evidence from the Spanish ceramic tile industry," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Andreas Ziegler, 2007. "Simulated classical tests in multinomial probit models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 655-681, October.

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