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Towards a dynamic discrete-choice model of household automobile fleet size and composition


  • Hensher, David A.
  • Le Plastrier, Vicki


The emphasis on energy consumption in studies of traveller behaviour has led to increased interest in the development of policy sensitive models of automobile demand. In recognition of the fuller dimensions of automobile demand, a number of studies have considered choice amongst types of automobiles as well as number of automobiles. With rare exception, existing studies have concentrated on either type choice or number choice. In all instances the approach has been static. This paper develops a series of linked discrete-choice models to explain household automobile holdings (type and number) and adjustments in the holdings over time. The empirical study is part of an initial data effort leading up to the development of a full scale longitudinal panel of Sydney households. A model system based on a retrospective panel of 354 households, interviewed in 1980, is reported herein. The model is dynamic in the sense that it allows for prior decisions, brand loyalty and the costs of transacting.

Suggested Citation

  • Hensher, David A. & Le Plastrier, Vicki, 1985. "Towards a dynamic discrete-choice model of household automobile fleet size and composition," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 481-495, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:19:y:1985:i:6:p:481-495

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    Cited by:

    1. Dargay, Joyce & Hanly, Mark, 2007. "Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 934-948, December.
    2. Baltas, George & Saridakis, Charalampos, 2013. "An empirical investigation of the impact of behavioural and psychographic consumer characteristics on car preferences: An integrated model of car type choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 92-110.
    3. Roorda, Matthew J. & Carrasco, Juan A. & Miller, Eric J., 2009. "An integrated model of vehicle transactions, activity scheduling and mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 217-229, February.
    4. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna & Eluru, Naveen, 2009. "The impact of demographics, built environment attributes, vehicle characteristics, and gasoline prices on household vehicle holdings and use," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-18, January.
    5. Golob, Thomas F. & Kim, Seyoung & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "How households use different types of vehicles: A structural driver allocation and usage model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 103-118, March.

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